Thursday, June 30, 2005

Prospect Rankings (Part Two) - June 2005

This half was much more difficult to do, for several reasons. First of all, the difference between prospect #11 and #15 was about the same as the difference between #2 and #3. Also, it was difficult to figure out which prospects deserved a place on the list. There were several prospects that would have made this list easily had I done this in 2001. Because of the depth, I haven't included any member of the 2005 draft class, although I really like John Drennen, Trevor Crowe, and Nick Weglarz. Again, I've given the benefit of the doubt to more advanced prospects, even if they aren't putting up the same statistics in Akron as a prospect in Lake County. As far as I'm concerned, I like surer things, and it's a lot easier to project a prospect in AA than one with just a couple innings or at-bats in Eastlake.

(11) RHP Dan Denham
Acquired: 2001 Draft (1st Round)
Born: 12-24-1982
2005 Stats (AA): 92.0 IP, 3.52 ERA, 71 H, 61 SO, 26 BB
Previous Ranking: Unranked
Trend: Up
ETA: Late 2006

Although Travis Foley has pretty much gone by the wayside, three of the four high school arms taken in 2001 are slowly but surely rounding into shape. Jake Dittler, the only one I rated before the season, has the worst numbers of the trio thus far. Martin, who I mentioned in the first half of the list, has the best line of any pitcher in the organization this year, but Denham's numbers have shown marked improvement his second time around in Akron. His hits ratio is way down, and he's upped his strikeouts to boot. Denham throws in the low 90s, and has three other complementary pitches (curve, change, and slider). As with any young pitcher, learning how to harness your stuff is half the battle, and Denham has shown improvement in his command and mound presence. He's one of several good Rule 5 eligibles at the end of the season.

(12) RHP Jake Dittler
Acquired: 2001 Draft (2nd Round)
Born: 11-24-1982
2005 Stats (AA): 95.0 IP, 3.22 ERA, 105 H, 48 SO, 33 BB
Previous Ranking: #9
Trend: Down
ETA: Late 2006

The ERA has gone down, but the strikeouts have as well for Dittler, who has stalled a bit in AA. He was the first of the 2001 high schoolers to make Akron, starting 2004 with the Aeros, but posted a 5.02 ERA. This season, he's given up less runs, but the peripherals look the same. Granted, Dittler makes use of a sinking fastball, and not having Corey Smith behind you probably helps him out, but he needs to miss more bats in order to be successful in the major leagues. Of course, they said the same thing about Jake Westbrook as he was progressing through the minors.

(13) LHP Chuck Lofgren
Acquired: 2004 Draft (4th Round)
Born: 1-29-1986
2005 Stats (A-): 31.2 IP, 1.42 ERA, 17 H, 20 SO, 17 BB
Previous Ranking: Unranked
Trend: Up
ETA: 2009

I think the Indians may have found something with Lofgren. Drafted as a pitcher, he hit some last year in Burlington, and 10 at-bats convinced him that pitching was his ticket to success. As a 19-year-old, Lofrgen has made a fine full-season debut thus far, and has gotten better with each start. But I'm basing this on a very small amount of IP, so this is more of a hunch pick that anything. Lofgren has a pretty good fastbal (~92 mph)l and a slow (~75 mph) curve.

(14) OF Brian Barton
Acquired: Undrafted Free Agent, 2004
Born: 4-25-1982
2005 Stats (A-): 133 AB, .414/.506/.624, 14 2B, 4 HR, 21 SO, 18 BB
Previous Ranking: Unranked
Trend: Up
ETA: 2008

I think it goes without saying that Barton dominated the Sally League. After all, he's 23, right? What's interesting, though, is that Barton had not taken a professional at-bat until he set foot in Eastlake. In any case, give credit to whoever spotted him, because the Indians might have themselves a steal. Since his promotion to Kinston, Brian has been merely mortal; he's hitting .261/.346/.522 in 23 AB.

(15) LHP Tony Sipp
Acquired: 2004 Draft (45th Round)
Born: 7-12-1983
2005 Stats (A-): 69.0 IP, 2.22 ERA, 71 SO, 19 BB
Previous Ranking: #19
Trend: Up
ETA: 2008

Tony looks to be on the Fernando Cabrera career path; the Indians think he'll be best suited out of the bullpen, but he's starting to get some innings in. After dominating the New York-Penn league last season, Sipp has been promoted to Kinston after a fine showing in Eastlake. Sipp's main pitches are a fastball and slider, so you can see why the Indians think he could be a future setup man.

(16) RHP Nick Pesco
Acquired: 2002 Draft (25th Round)
Born: 9-17-1983
2005 Stats (A+): 85.2 IP, 3.99 ERA, 95 IP, 95 H, 55 SO, 21 BB
Previous Ranking: #13
Trend: Down
ETA: 2008

I'm not too concerned about Pesco, as this is his first full season in Kinston, and he's holding his own. Pesco has a low-90s fastball and a good changeup, as well as a slider.

(17) RHP Justin Hoyman
Acquired: 2004 Draft (2nd Round)
Born: 4-17-1982
2005 Stats (A-): 48.0 IP, 3.00 ERA, 44 H, 36 SO, 18 BB
Previous Ranking: #17
Trend: Level
ETA: 2007

Hoyman is on the shelf with inflammation in his pitching elbow. Before the injury, Hoyman had been pitching well in Lake County. Again, due to the pitching depth in the organization, he gets forgotten a bit, but that doesn't mean he's not a prospect. With pitching, you're going to have attrition, and having a lot of it means you have a better chance of developing a couple major-league arms. Hoyman has a fastball with good movement, as well as three other pitches, all of which he can throw for strikes.

(18) OF Jason Cooper
Acquired: 2002 Draft (3rd Round)
Born: 12-6-1980
2005 Stats (AA): 205 AB, .254/.359/.478, 9 2B, 11 HR, 67 SO, 30 BB
Previous Ranking: #15
Trend: Level
ETA: 2006

If Cooper is going to make the majors, it will be because of his bat. After a slow start in Akron, Cooper started to catch fire, and was recently promoted to Buffalo. Although there's a couple of veteren outfielders with the Bisons (Ernie Young, Andy Abad), Cooper's pretty much it as far as young outfielders are concerned, so if the team is looking for a left fielder for a long stretch, Cooper may get a shot. Now that's not likely this year, especially as long as the team is in playoff contention, but Cooper has some pop in his bat, and can take a walk. He's not ready yet, but he could be by next year at this time.

(19) RHP Bear Bay
Acquired: Trade, 2005
Born: 8-7-1983
2005 Stats (A+): 79.1 IP, 3.06 ERA, 74 H, 82 SO, 14 BB
Previous Ranking: Unranked
Trend: Up
ETA: 2007

Acquired for Cliff Bartosh, Bay has looked excellent in Kinston. The right-hander pitched just as well as Jeremy Sowers, and is probably next in line for a promotion to Akron. I especially like the 82/14 SO/BB ratio.

(20) 2B/3B Jake Gautreau
Acquired: Trade, 2004
Born: 11-4-1979
2005 Stats: 258 AB, .287/.348/.535, 20 2B, 14 HR, 49 SO, 23 BB
Previous Ranking: Unranked
Trend: Up
ETA: Now

After being dealt to the Indians for fellow 1st-Round disappointment Corey Smith, Gautreau has finally started to deliver on the expectations. The problem is that Gautreau is more of a tweener than a third base or second base prospect. HIs defense isn't what you'd like to see at either position, which makes him more of a nice bench player than a starter in my opinion. With right-handers at second and third, Jake could be a nice addition to the bench if Casey Blake or Jose Hernandez (more likely) is dealt this year.

Tuesday, June 28, 2005

Kevin Millwood's Pitching Clinic

If you watched any of the previous series with Boston, you know how hot the Red Sox hitters have been (they recenetly pasted Philly pitching to the tune of 27 runs in three games). That makes what Kevin Millwood did all the more amazing. Kevin got out of a first inning jam, and was never seriously in trouble again. He pitched inside to left-handers like David Ortiz, got Manny Ramirez on high fastballs and outside curves, and really kept the entire lineup off balance during his six innings of work. If you take into consideration the opposition, Millwood's outing probably rates as the best Indian pitching performance of the year.

The Red Sox essentially gave the Indians five runs through shoddy defense. The Indians scored three runs thanks to an absolutely bonehead error by Mark Bellhorn, and two thanks to Trot Nixon's deflection of a Grady Sizemore fly ball over the short right field fence. You could say the Indians didn't need all those runs, but it did allow the back end of the bullpen to get some rest, and made the last three innings relatively stress-free.

Travis Hafner is making his case for the All-Star team. He hit his 12th home run of the season tonight, and while his numbers aren't as good as they were in 2004, I'd have to think his .293/.397/.526 line would be good enough in a year with a weak class of AL 1B/DHs. The other two possibles in my mind are Cliff Lee and Bob Wickman, although I'd much rather see Hafner or Lee than Wickman be the lone Indians representative.

Kyle Denney is apparently fine but still in a Buffalo hospital. He suffered a cerebral contusion (a bruise to the brain), a fracture of one his skull bones, and a ruptured eardrum. Those are obviously quite serious injuries, although the good news is that he never lost consciousness after the injury. Best of luck to him as he recovers.

Thanks for the feedback on the young arms; the second half of the top 20 should be up some time tomorrow.

Monday, June 27, 2005

Weekend In Review

The Indians finished their twelve-game homestand 8-4 by winning this weekend's series against the Cincinnati Reds.

The series did start ominously, with the Reds winning on Friday in the same way the Red Sox won on Wednesday; by tying the game in the eighth and taking the lead in the ninth. In both cases the bullpen, which had for the most part been stellar all year, did not execute. Scott Sauerbeck, who had owned Ken Griffey his entire career, hung a curveball on the inner half of the plate in the eighth inning on Friday. Well, you know the rest. In cases like this, it's helpful to remember the sometimes frustrating but eventually edifying aspect of baseball; sometimes percentages do not go your way. Scott Sauerbeck may strike Griffey out every time he faces him until he retires, but for that one at-bat, Griffey won the battle. In the ninth inning, Felipe Lopez, in the midst of a breakout season doubled home Pena to take the lead.

One-run games, though, sometimes work the other way. For instance, take today's game. Victor Martinez fouled off four pitches against Reds reliever David Weathers before pulling a single through the right side. Game, set, match. Martinez had been hitting .207 left-handed to that point. Now Martinez is not that bad a hitter from the left side as the numbers say, but the percentages were what they were, and Reds manager Jerry Narron allowed Weathers to pitch to Victor. Sometimes you get the percentages, and sometimes the percentages get you.

The other game was a pure unadulterated whipping, although David Riske allowed four runs in the ninth inning before finally recording the final out of the game. Riske has been in a pitching slump lately, he has had trouble locating his offspeed pitches, which has opposing hitters sitting on his fastball. The good thing is that the Indians aren't dependant on Riske at this stage of the season to get the other team out in pressure situations. If the Indians had "one through nine" going last year with the hitters, they have using "one through seven" in the bullpen. Depth is extremely important in baseball, given the long season and all the things that can go wrong during it, and although there are a finite number of guys you can place on a roster, making sure that each of them can contribute positively to the team is a crucial goal to meet. This holds true especially when constructing a bullpen; if you have only a certain amount of people you can trust with a lead, you open yourself up to problems down the road, mainly the tiring of the arms that you do trust. Riske probably won't be pitching in anything but a lopsided game, so until he gets his control back, the Indians will have one less arm to use in late inning situations.

Victor Martinez is hitting .289/.385/.513 in June (76 AB).

I received a couple e-mails about Jhonny Peralta, especially regarding his placement in the order. And in retrospect, I over-reacted a bit. For one thing, the order of the lineup is really secondary to the specific players in it. For example, you could have placed every member of the 1991 Indians in the perfect spot in the lineup, and they'd still have finished last in the league in scoring. When you have bad players in your lineup, you will score less runs than if you have good players hitting. I guess my main beef was not really the placement of Peralta in the lineup, but the fact that he wasn't in the lineup as much as I'd like. With the first four places in the order (Sizemore, Crisp, Hafner, Martinez/Broussard) becoming solidified, I think little minutae like lineup order will become less and less of an issue.

Best wishes to Kyle Denney, who was hospitalized tonight after being struck in the head by a ball off the bat of Durham outfielder Joey Gathright.

To those reading this via an RSS reader, hopefully the formatting problems have been fixed.

I'm working on the final ten of my top 20 prospects, and I'm having to make some interesting decisions. Say what you will about the top couple of prospects, there's a ton of depth in the organization. I'll throw out five pitchers, and I'd like you to recommend three of them to remain in the top 20:

Nick Pesco (A+)
Dan Denham (AA)
Dan Cevette (A-)
Aaron Laffey (A-)
Bear Bay (A+)



Friday, June 24, 2005

A New Look

I was straightening some things out to help the readability of the blog, and one thing lead to another. Feel free to post your thoughts here. Do you like the new look, or should I have kept the old one?

Prospect Rankings (Part One) - June 2005

This seems to be a great time to review my prospect rankings, given that the first half of the season is over for many of the leagues, and also because there I don't really want to get into what happened last Wednesday.

Just a quick glimpse into where I'm coming from in putting together this list. I lean towards results rather than projectability, but I will in some cases defer to the player's upside. I also like prospects at AA or AAA, as there's less that can go wrong between Akron and Cleveland versus Burlington and Cleveland. With that said, on with the mindless speculation!

(1) RHP Adam Miller
Acquired: 2003 Draft (Sandwich Round)
Born: 11-26-1984
2005 Stats: N/A
Previous Ranking: #1
Trend: Level
ETA: 2007

I'm keeping Miller at the top of the list because there really isn't anyone else I feel is better than him, and even though he just made his first start of the year. Miller had been sidelined until a couple days ago because of an elbow strain in Spring Training. If Miller is healthy, he's one of the better pitching prospects in baseball, with a tremendous fastball and slider combination. Check out his numbers in Lake County and Kinston last year and you'll see what I mean. A combination of low hit rates, at least decent walk rates, and high strikeout rates is the trifecta as far as young pitchers are concerned, and Miller so far in his professional career has all three. If he stays healthy, he could be a really good one.

(2) RHP Fernando Cabrera
Acquired: 1999 Draft (10th Round)
Born: 11-16-1981
2005 Stats (AAA): 39.1 IP, 0.92 ERA, 26 H, 55 SO, 7 BB
Previous Ranking: #7
Trend: Up
ETA: Now

You know that "trifecta" I was talking about? Cabrera has it also. Cabrera may be the best relief pitcher prospect in the minors right now, and he's pretty much ready for the big leagues whenever the Indians have a need in the bullpen. Fernando was originally a starter in the minors, but over the past couple of years have been eased into a relief role (although I believe the Indians thought he was going to be a reliever before that, but they get Cabrera as a starter in order to get him some innings). Just recently, Cabrera was moved into the closer's role in Buffalo, which may be a sign that he's being groomed as a future closer with the Indians. I can see him taking over Bob Howry's role next year, and then moving into the closer's role a year or two down the road. Cabrera has been chosen for the Futures Game next month as part of the World team.

(3) C/1B Ryan Garko
Acquired: 2003 Draft (3rd Round)
Born: 1-21-1981
2005 Stats (AAA): 240 AB, .271/.342/.500, 12 2B, 13 HR, 47 SO, 21 BB
Previous Ranking: #4
Trend: Level
ETA: September

Garko has been a pleasant surprise since he joined the organization, and he hasn't stopped hitting. Garko probably won't be a full-time catcher anytime soon, although he can probably hit enough to stick as a C/1B/DH like a couple other players have done. I made mention a couple days ago that Ryan could be a cheap upgrade over Ben Broussard if the Indians decide to deal him, or he can be a nice right-handed bat off the bench. Either way, I think he's with the Indians next season. Garko also is going to appear in the Futures Game as part of the US team.


(4) LHP Jeremy Sowers
Acquired: 2004 Draft (1st Round)
Born:
2005 Stats (A+): 71.1 IP, 2.78 ERA, 60 H, 75 SO, 19 BB
Previous Ranking: #10
Trend: Up
ETA: 2006

Sowers has progressed pretty much on schedule, deserving his recent promotion to Akron. The left-hander has good off-speed pitches (especially his curve), and has a good idea how to use them. His fastball tops out in the high 80s, but with his curve in the low-to-mid 70s, his top-end speed shouldn't be much of an issue. If the Indians really needed him this year, he could probably pitch in September, but I doubt we'll see Jeremy in the majors until at least 2006, mainly because of 40-man roster considerations.

(5) RHP JD Martin
Acquired: 2001 Draft (Sandwich)
Born: 1-2-1983
2005 Stats (AA): 51.2 IP, 2.44 ERA, 39 H, 61 SO, 7 BB
Previous Ranking: Unranked
Trend: Up
ETA: Late 2006

Martin has become somewhat of a revelation; before this season, his numbers were very pedestrian for a pitcher picked that high in the draft. Then late in 2004, he starting upping his strikeout rates, and carried that trend over to this year. He's been sidetracked recently with a trip to the DL, but he returned last week pitching as well as he had prior to his arm injury. Also notice the low walk totals, which indicates that his increased strikeout totals haven't come at the expense of control. Three of the four 2001 bonus babies are pitching well in Akron this year, but Martin is the best of the bunch right now.

(6) 1B Michael Aubrey
Acquired: 2003 Draft (1st Round)
Born: 4-15-1982
2005 Stats (AA): 106 AB, .283/.336/.462, 5 2B, 4 HR, 18 SO, 7 BB
Trend: Down
ETA: Late 2006

I didn't bump Aubrey down on this list because of his performance on the field. The problem with him has been that can't seem to get on the field in the first place. Aubrey is still hitting well enough, but the injury concerns are starting to mount; it would be one thing if one major injury was what was holding Michael back, but it seems that he's gotten a lot of pesky strains and pulls, which doesn't bode well for his long-term durability. I still love his bat and his glove, but has to stay healthy to stay on schedule.

(7) OF Brad Snyder
Acquired: 2003 Draft (1st Round)
Born: 5-25-1982
2005 Stats (A+): 209 AB, .278/.365/.431, 10 2B, 6 HR, 64 SO, 24 BB
Trend: Level
ETA: 2007

Snyder isn't having a breakout 2005, but he's met expectations, earning a promotion to Akron. Beyond the numbers you see above, Snyder has been very good in the stolen bases department; he's only been caught once in 13 attempts. He's still seen as a center fielder, although having Grady Sizemore ahead of him may block his progress in this organization. But there aren't too many high-level outfield prospects in the organization, and Franklin Gutierrez has had an awful time in Akron, so he might get a chance if there's some attrition among the current major-league crop of outfielders. Right now, the numbers don't really wow me, but he has some time on his side.

(8) 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff
Acquired: 2003 Draft (6th Round)
Born: 7-25-1981
2005 Stats (A+): 185 AB, .348/.398/.616, 17 2B, 9 HR, 40 SO, 14 BB
Trend: Up
ETA: 2007

The only real knock on Kouzmanoff is his age, and it really wasn't his fault that he had to pound Carolina League pitching for half the year before he got a promotion to Akron. The strikeouts are something to keep an eye on, as there's a big jump in pitchers' control from A+ to AA. Although the Indians might have caught lightning in a bottle with Jake Gautreau, Kouzmanoff is probably the best pure third base prospect in the organization. He could be ready by late 2006 if everything goes right.

(9) OF Franklin Gutierrez
Acquired: Trade, 2004
Born: 2-21-1983
2005 Stats: 211 AB, .227/.303/.355, 11 2B, 4 HR, 48 SO, 21 BB
Trend: Down
ETA: 2007

Wha' happened? Those are ugly numbers, especially for someone who's repeating AA. Gutierrez has had some nagging injuries over the past year or so, but I don't think you can just explain away this poor a showing with just injuries. The drop in power is especially a concern given the numbers he's put up in the past couple years. Heck, in Akron last year he slugged .466 at age 21. Perhaps Gutierrez is placing too much pressure on himself; recently he was moved out of the cleanup spot in order to help him relax more.

(10) RHP Fausto Carmona
Acquired: Free Agent, 2000
Born: 12-7-83
2005 Stats: 90.2 IP, 4.07 ERA, 100 H, 57 SO, 20 BB
Trend: Down
ETA: 2007

The problem for Carmona is that merely throwing strikes isn't going to get AA hitters out. He's giving up way too many hits and striking out too few in my opinion. He was recently promoted to Buffalo, but it appears it's mainly to fill in for Chad Zerbe, who went on the DL. With good prospects coming in behind him, Carmona may get squeezed out of a rotation spot before too long.

Tuesday, June 21, 2005

All Good Things...

When the Indians lose a game like they did last night, I try to stay away from the keyboard for a bit, just to prevent myself from typing something stupid. And also, it's a lot better to think objectively about a game after you've had a while to cool off.

The Indians' hitters did as good a job against a pitcher as I've seen this. Team looking for an advantage on David Wells should just watch what Tribe hitters did in last night's game. Almost no at-bats were given way, the hitters did not bite often on Wells when he nibbled just off the plate, and when they did, they just fouled off the pitch. They didn't try to do too much with their opportunities, settling for singles instead of trying to gamble for a homer. They did not let Wells have an easy inning. The result was that Wells was done after the fifth inning, which exposed the juicy underbelly of Boston's bullpen to Indian hitters in the mid-to-late innings of the game.

If only CC Sabathia had put forth a mildly competent pitching performance.

Boston's lineup is difficult in that not only do most of the hitters make you work for each out, they make adjustments from at-bat to at-bat and make you pay for throwing the same pitch in a similar situation. Unfortunately, Sabathia did not simply change his method, but tried to throw his fastball with more velocity instead. I guess that's an easy temptation for a pitcher with great stuff, but it often leads to disaster when you face smart hitters. Now some hits given up by him were not entirely his fault; Manny Ramirez hit his homerun off an ankle-high offering, which maybe three or four players in baseball could have hit. Ramirez's broken-bat double in the fifth was not Sabathia's fault at all, but the the fastball down the runway to Jason Varitek was. It's not the runs I get concerned about, because sometimes a pitcher just gets plain unlucky; it's the approach that Sabathia showed that concerned me. Having great stuff is one thing, but the great pitchers know how to use it to their advantage. Sabathia has "pitched" many times this season, but last night, he just "threw".

It's easy to say that replacing Eddie Murray with Derek Shelton has been the reason why the Indians are hitting again. The only thing that we know is that they are hitting better; I'll leave the guessing to someone else. Just like with pitching, approach matters with hitters, and the Indians are approaching their at-bats like they did a year ago. Travis Hafner, who was perhaps the one hitter in the lineup that has been consistent with his approach, put together a simply amazing at-bat against Alan Embree last night, culminating with a home run to deep center field. Victor Martinez followed with a home run to left field off of closer Keith Foulke, which is also a good sign. While Martinez hasn't gotten his average up yet, he's walking a lot more than he did early in the season. His OBP is now above .300, and he's starting to hit for power from the left side of the plate. He's hitting .271/.375/.475 during the month of June. While you can write that off as a small sample size, look at his body of work in the minors and majors and you can reasonably say that he should be able to keep that line up through the rest of this season.

About this time last year, Ben Broussard went through a slump much like he's doing now. I think it's safe to say that Broussard looks like a really streaky hitter, and the peaks aren't really worth the valley. I wouldn't be surprise to see Ben end up with decent numbers, but I think if the Indians can find an upgrade at first base after the season, they should do it. Although the AL first baseman have been REALLY bad this year, that shouldn't be an excuse to give Broussard a long-term deal or a large arbitration payday.

I think the Indians have figured out that Casey Blake isn't a player you want as your everyday right fielder, and to their credit they're making him a sort of utility player. Heck, for Casey's long-term future in major-league baseball, this shift might be best for him. He's shown he can play the outfield well, and of course he can play both third and first base. Unfortunately for the Indians, they signed that type of player last offseason; Jose Hernandez. With Jake Gautreau worthy of a look and Aaron Boone sticking around another year thanks to the vested option, Blake might be trade bait in the offseason if they can find someone who really wants him. Speaking of Gautreau, he's now hitting .296/.343/.556 with 14 HR and 19 2B in Buffalo. He can probably play at second base as well as third, so I think he's worth a roster spot next year, and he should certainly be placed on the 40-man roster next November.

Also hitting well is Ryan Garko (.271/.344/.504), who seems to have recovered from a slow start in frigid Buffalo. He's another player that's a good fit in at least as a right-handed platoon for Ben Broussard (if he's still here). He might be a cheap upgrade as an everyday first baseman, or could even fill in at catcher for a couple weeks at a time.

While the overall hitting prospects have left a lot to be desired this year, the Indians system has quite a bit of depth as far as pitchers are concerned. You have a couple of older pitching prospects at Buffalo (Tallet, Traber, Davis) who could come up and enter the major-league rotation if needed, a good young rotation (Dittler, Denham, Martin, Carmona) in Akron, and guys in Kinston (Sowers, Bay) who would be in Akron already if not for a logjam in AA. Then of course you have Adam Miller and Scott Lewis, both highly-regarded pitching prospects working their way back from injuries, some interesting reliever prospects (Fernando Cabrera, Edward Mujica, and even Jose Diaz), and even breakout prospects like Tony Sipp. I can't remember when last the Indians had a pitching stable this deep. This is something to remember if the Indians are in a position to add some players in late July; they have the pitching depth and the pitching prospects to match just about any other organization.

Be sure to check out Alex's interview with Indians draft pick Joseph Hunter. The Hardball Times has an article on last Sunday's game against Arizona



Monday, June 20, 2005

Enjoying the Ride

Yesterday's post was my way of putting everything in perspective. If you accept that Bob Wickman is the best closer in the league, then you'll be that much more disappointed when he regresses towards the mean. That being said, you have to at some point just enjoy this winning wave until it finally crashes upon shore, as long as you understand that it happens. The opposite is true as well; revisit this column for a great example of sports myopia.

I suppose it is a staple of baseball fans to get really high during the winning streaks and irate and depressed during the down stretches. The body of work is important in evaluating anything in baseball, and right now the Indians are 37-30. As Bill Parcells might say, you are what you are, but you can take some things from recent events as signs of future events; how you got there can tell you where you are going.

The offense has been much better lately. The Indians' line in June is .262/.318/.460, a drastic improvement over what they did in April (.228/.293/.376). Aaron Boone, Casey Blake, and Victor Martinez are hitting much better lately, although Ben Broussard seems to have entered one of his cold streaks. That the club has patched up most of their offensive holes is a big reason why the team has one nine straight. The team could probably use a veteren bat to hit behind Hafner in the order, but for now, "one through nine" has to suffice.

The pitching has maintained its excellence, which is the biggest reason for the streak. The rotation's fourth and fifth starters pitched well against a good offensive team this weekend, and the staff's overall ERA now stands at 3.50, best in the majors. What's even more impressive is the opposition's OPS, which is .674, more than twenty points lower than the second place staff. Kevin Millwood is now healthy, and the bullpen is deep and good. When you don't have a weak link on your pitching staff, you force the other team's pitchers to beat you.

That being said, the pitchers are going to get a real test in the next two weeks; the Indians face some of the best offenses in baseball before the All-Star Break. Boston, who the Indians next face, rank second in the AL in runs scored, and Baltimore (June 30, July 1-2) ranks fourth. Cincinnati, for all their pitching problems, can still put runs on the board (2nd in the NL in runs scored). The good news for the Indians is none of the teams have that great of pitching staffs. The Indians miss Boston's best starter, Matt Clement in the upcoming series, so that's a big break. But watch out for David Wells, tomorrow's starter; he's shut down St. Louis and Cincinnati in his past two starts, allowing only 5 hits in his past 15 innings pitched. Of course, he has emotional ties with the Indians fans, so I'm sure he'll get a warm welcome as he warms up in the bullpen.


Sunday, June 19, 2005

Unsolved Mysteries

I'm no Robert Stack, but frankly these unexplained events require some examination:

1. Which alien being has taken over Scott Elarton's body?

I guess an interesting follow-up would be "Why?" Against a lineup that on paper would shell him, Elarton calmly threw high fastballs and curveballs to Troy Glaus and Luis Gonzalez and got away with it. Heck, he even struck out three Snakes to boot. I cannot speak to the motives of the alien(s) now inhabiting Elarton's body, but I do wish them to remain there until the season is over with. And maybe the Indians need to send a scout to their home planet, because they seem to have a natural understanding of pitching.

2. Which deity has Bob Wickman sold his soul to in order to save games?

Now, I like Bob. Before the season I speculated that his "presence" would allow the other guys in the bullpen to do what they do best and leave the heaving lifting to Bob. But never in my wildest dreams did I imagine that he would be almost perfect in save opportunities despite having really bad peripherals. I believe the reason why Bob does not hold runners on is because he already knows the outcome of the game. Or perhaps he's also been taken over by the same creatures who are now inhabiting Elarton's body.

3. Why is Jhonny Peralta batting ninth in the order?

After 2.5 months, a couple spots in the order are pretty much spoken for. Grady Sizemore is the leadoff hitter. Coco Crisp is the second hitter. Travis Hafner hits cleanup. And, of course, Jhonny Peralta hits ninth. Now, if this were the 1995 Indians we were talking about, I could somehow understand this. But when you have Casey Blake and Josh Bard hitting in front of Jhonny, I see a big problem with the banishment. Perhaps I'm underestimating the vitriol some Omar Vizquel supporters have for Peralta; after all, he was the main reason why Omar! is plying his trade in another city now. Peralta leads the team in slugging percentage, has eight home runs, and has somehow amassed 23 RBI despite hitting behind Aaron Boone and Casey Blake most of the season. Would moving him up to the 6th or 7th spot kill his confidence?

4. Why did Eric Wedge shave his mustache?

Ah...sorry. Someone else has gotten to the bottom of that case.

Saturday, June 18, 2005

Life's A Beach

Tonight was beach night at the Jake, and the Indians kicked sand in the face of Arizona pitchers all night.

The offense started with...what else?...patience at the plate. The Indians made starter Brad Halsey go deep into counts, with Travis Hafner's at-bat in the third inning a great example of what can happen when you make a pitcher throw a pitch in your zone. If Hafner had tried to pull Halsey's fastball, he probably pops it up, but he went with the pitch, lined it into the left field gap, and the run parade commenced. Casey Blake, while he's now just above the Mendoza Line, hasn't lost his power; he hit his 9th of the season tonight, surpassing Ronnie Belliard for the team lead.

The team's two youngest players - Grady Sizemore and Jhonny Peralta - hit back-to-back home runs in that third inning. Peralta, who has done nothing but hit when he's played, now is slugging .526, which would place him second only to Miguel Tejada among AL shortstops if he had enough at-bats to qualify. Sizemore is now hitting .308/.349/.483, and his OPS is second only to Johnny Damon among AL center fielders. The infusion of young talent is vital to the continued success of a team like the Indians for obvious reasons; they can give the Indians a huge advantage over other clubs who can't develop/acquire these players themselves. The Indians can't go out on the market to sign a shortstop with power or a 4-tool center fielder, so they have to develop them in-house.

Cliff Lee wasn't that great, but he stuck around five innings to get his 8th win of the season. Although the bullpen was used again, only two pitchers (Riske and Miller) were required to finish the game, so Wickman, Rhodes and Howry all should be able to go on Saturday and Sunday if need be.

Unfortunately for the Indians, every team ahead of them in the divisional and wild card races won. On a related note, have you noticed the AL's record against the NL this season? Only two AL clubs (Tampa Bay and Oakland) have losing records against the National League. The AL Central is collectively 38-22 against the NL.

While no Cleveland Indian has 10 home runs thus far, SIX Buffalo Bisons have 10 or more home runs in three more games played. Included among the six are Brandon Phillips, Ryan Garko, and Jake Gautreau, all of which are still considered prospects. But the best hitter on the team has been minor-league vet Ernie Young, who is hitting .306/.404/.568 for the year. And for those interested, the Bisons' home park is rated a pitchers' park by Baseball America.

The Indians face Brandon Webb, one of the game's best young pitchers tomorrow. Webb has baseball's highest GB/FB ratio at 4.21; Jake Westbrook is second. What Webb does that Westbrook doesn't do is strike batters out as well; he combines that high ground ball ratio with a fine 7.18 K/9. That's a great combination to have, especially if you pitch in a hitters' park like Webb does.




Friday, June 17, 2005

34-30

It wasn't pretty, but the Indians swept the Rockies tonight despite Bob Wickman's best effort to blow a save. Why he continually allows runners to take bases is beyond me; I'm sure Eric Wedge has talked to him about this more than a few times, and hopefully it won't take a blown save or two to convince Wicky to, you know, try to hold a runner once in a while.

Kevin Millwood only went five innings, but seemed to get better as the innings progressed. Thanks to the meticulous John Sanders for letting me know that Millwood threw 33 pitches in the first inning, All those pitches in the first inning shortened his start and made the bullpen go a extra inning. I liked that Howry pitched the seventh and Rhodes the eighth, because the matchups favored Arthur in that inning. The defense helped out as well; Ronnie Belliard made a nice double play to get out of a jam (caused by his error), and Coco Crisp and Jody Gerut made nice diving/sliding stops in the outfield.

Jhonny Peralta didn't play tonight, but there was a legitimate reason this time; Peralta hyperextended his elbow in last night's game, so he got the night off in order to help the injury heal.

Ben Broussard left tonight's game to be with his wife for the imminent birth of their first child. Congrats, Ben!

Thanks partly to Omar Vizquel, the Giants beat the Twins tonight, so the Indians end the day 8.5 games out of first place, and three games behind Minnesota (and the wild card lead).

Aaron Boone in June: .317/.396/.634. Baby steps....

Next up are the Arizona Diamondbacks, who have a pretty good offense, and a suspect pitching staff, with their bullpen shouldering the largest share of the blame. Check out what 1B Tony Clark is doing:

125 AB, .352/.388/.712, 10 2B, 11 HR

The good news is that the Indians miss Javier Vazquez. The bad news is that they face two southpaws during the series, so that probably means two more games with Casey Blake in right field.



Thursday, June 16, 2005

That Was Impressive

After CC Sabathia left the game in the fourth inning, the Indians used six relief pitchers. This was their collective line:

7.2 IP, 3 H, 0 BB, 13 SO

Last year, there were maybe two guys I wanted to see in with the game on the line. This year, I don't care who comes out of the right field bullpen; they all are pitching well.

Aaron Boone looks to have found his hitting stroke again; he had good at-bats tonight, and of course the payoff for him came in the 11th inning. I've been ripping on him all year, so I have give credit where it's due.

Alex Cora better get used to pinch running and being a late-inning defensive replacement, because that's all he'll be doing for a while. Jhonny Peralta's 9th inning home run off Brandon Fuentes (who by the way, has one of the weirdest deliveries I've seen) was a great piece of hitting.

After the game the Indians announced a couple transactions, neither of which are too shocking:

Reinstated RHSP Kevin Millwood from the 15-day Disabled List

Optioned RHP Jason Davis to Buffalo (AAA)

Davis needs regular innings, and he's not going to get them pitching in long relief. I would guess Davis is still starting, although the Bisons might utilize a "tandem starting" system, seeing that they now have seven starters on their roster. I believe they did this the other night, as Kyle Denney pitched the first five innings, and then manager Marty Brown brought in Steve Watkins to start the sixth. Getting Millwood back is obviously a good thing. Kevin didn't go out on a rehab assignment, so he might be on a pitch count tomorrow. Scott Elarton would probably be available if need be.

Wednesday, June 15, 2005

32-30

Unfortunately for the Indians, being two games above .500 means that they are still nine games out of first place. The Indians are still five games out of the wild card race, with three teams ahead of them.

But let's not dwell on that right now.

The Indians pounded the Colorado Rockies tonight 11-2. The Rockies have won only four games on the road this year, so Cleveland did what they needed to do. And in the process, they got Jake Westbrook a well-deserved win. Westbrook is not a 2-9 pitcher, or even a 3-9 pitcher. As I've touched on recently, Westbrook has been just plain unlucky this year. You could say that this is Jake's luck evening out, but all things being equal, Jake should be a .500 pitcher with an ERA hovering around 4.25 or so. Just compare his numbers from this year compared to last:

K/9
2004: 4.84
2005: 4.90

K/BB
2004: 1.90
2005: 1.88

H/9
2004: 8.68
2005: 8.71

GB/FB
2004: 2.72
2005: 4.00(!)

I guess this shows how volatile an extreme groundball pitcher can be.

The Indians offense looks to be getting healthy. And I'm not really saying this just based on the amount of runs they scored tonight; the approach at the plate is what makes me more excited. Even Aaron Boone, everyone's favorite whipping boy, had some very good at-bats. What does that mean? The Indians have been pretty good the whole season at hitting for power; but they haven't been getting on base, whether that be via the hit or the walk. The Indians currently rank dead-last in the AL in OBP at .311, and while a lot of that has to do with a very low batting average (.248), the team does a service to the opposing pitching by not working counts; it keeps the starter in games longer, and sets up the bullpen in the late innings.

Recently, though, I've noticed that the hitters aren't chasing as many pitches out of the strike zone as they have been. Pitch recognition is extremely important to a hitter; by swinging at balls in the strike zone, the hitter has a much better chance of making solid contact. And the offense as a whole needs to get better in that department, even in the month of June, they still rank in the bottom half of the AL in most offensive categories. But I'm seeing some signs of progress.

Some random thoughts:

  • I had no idea that Matt Anderson, former high-velocity bust, was still in the majors. But I can say with certainty that Travis Hafner is glad he's still around; I can't recall when last someone hit a home run into the mezzanine deck in right field.


  • Grady Sizemore's stats remind me of another center fielder who debuted at a young age: Rocco Baldelli. Rocco hit .289/.326/.416 his rookie year, and of course the only knock on him was his lack of walks. His next year, Baldelli improved his walk rate a bit and hit for more power (.280/.326/.436), so that's a pretty good trend for the future.


  • A lot of people keep wondering whether Jhonny Peralta may someday have to shift over to third base. If I were running the Indians, I'd wait until it was absolutely necessary to move him there before I did so, judging by what shortstops are being paid. Jimmy Rollins, who is a pretty decent shortstop, just got a deal worth $40M over five years to remain in Philadelphia. I guess what I'm getting at is this: you keep Peralta, who can hit you 20-25 home runs a year at shortstop because he's worth a heckuva lot more there than at third base. Now if Brandon Phillips can prove that he can hit at the major-league level, then you can start thinking about a position change for Peralta. But there should be a real good reason for him moving right on the defensive spectrum.


  • If the Indians are still out of it come July, they do have a lot of valuable trading chips. Number one would obviously be Kevin Millwood, but Bob Wickman may fetch some nice prospects as well. After all, he's a "proven closer", and there are a couple contenders (Atlanta, Texas, Boston, the Cubs, and Florida come to mind) who really need help in the bullpen. Now I'm not saying that Wickman will fetch a Sexson-esque prospect, but if there's enough interest, the Indians could come away with a nice haul. Bob Howry, Scott Sauerbeck, and even Jose Hernandez also could be candidates for dealing. I'm not writing off this year by any stretch of the imagination, but the Indians could set themselves up for 2006 rather nicely if the White Sox and Twins continue to run away and hide from the Indians. There's not much of a chance that Millwood would sign with the Indians before he reached free agency, and Bob Wickman isn't the guy I want closing over the next few years. The Indians really need a corner bat, whether that be at first, third, or the outfield, and they could get a high-level prospect if someone is desparate enough at the deadline. I'll get more into this if events warrant.








Monday, June 13, 2005

A 7-5 Road Trip

That's pretty good considering three of the four teams on the trip were 10 games above .500 when the Indians played them. Depending on what happens in today's game between the White Sox and Padres, the Indians may end the trip less than games back of Chicago, but more importantly, they can finish the day five games back of the wild card leader (currently Minnesota).

Update: The White Sox won in extra innings, so the Indians remain 10.5 games back

The constant on the West Coast swing was the pitching, but the hitting picked up when the Indians reached San Francisco. The Giants, who are in the midst of an awful stretch of baseball, gave up 22 runs to the Indians over the weekend, which I believe is the most runs scored by the Indians in a series this year. Grady Sizemore, Coco Crisp, and Ronnie Belliard provided much of the offensive punch on the road trip, and Aaron Boone and even Casey Blake got important hits during the 6-game stretch. With a season-long twelve game homestand upcoming, the Indians have a golden opportunity to run off some wins. First on the homsetand is the Colorado Rockies, owners of the worst record in baseball.

Other good news includes the return of Kevin Millwood, who should come off the DL before Thursday's game against Colorado. Jason Davis will probably get optioned back to Buffalo, but with six starters already on the Bisons' roster, it should be interesting to see how the logjam is resolved. But more importantly, the starting staff gets solidified with the addition of Millwood. Here's a VORP update of the staff:

Sabathia 18.9
Lee 17.7
Millwood 16.4
Westbrook 1.3
Elarton 3.0

Riske 13.4
Rhodes 12.4
Betancourt 8.3
Howry 7.9
Miller 6.7
Wickman 6.2
Sauerbeck 2.2

That's pretty good, especially for the bullpen, where the Indians don't have any real weak links. As bad as the bullpen was last year, it's been that good this year.

My trade target for the week is Austin Kearns, who was just optioned to AAA by the Reds. Kearns hasn't been able to stay healthy throughout much of his young career, but the guy is a very talented player; this is a perfect time to buy low on him, now that Willy Mo Pena is back in the lineup for Cincinnati.

Here's some of the recent minor-league moves:

Traded OF John Rodriguez (AAA) to the St. Louis Cardinals for C Javier Cardona (AA)

Rodriguez was caught in a numbers game with the demotion of Ryan Ludwick and the promotion of Jason Cooper. Rodriguez was hitting a fairly pedestrian .247/.323/.447 this year after a good campaign in 2004. Cardona is a minor-league vet (he's 29 years old), and is a depth pickup

Promoted OF Jason Cooper to Buffalo (AAA) from Akron (AA)

Cooper, who I was ready to write off after a slow start this season, was hitting very well for the Aeros (.254/.359/.478) by the time he was called up.

Reinstated RHP Kyle Denney from the Disabled List (AAA)

I don't know who's out of the rotation, because the addition of Denney would mean six starters (Denney, Traber, Tallet, Guthrie, Cruceta, and Watkins) on the roster.

Released OF Darnell McDonald from Buffalo (AAA)

Released RHP Kyle Evans from Akron (AA)

The writing was on the wall for Evans, who had bounced around in the organization the last couple of years.

Promoted OF Brad Snyder to Akron (AA) from Kinston (A+)

The 2003 1st round pick reaches Akron pretty much on schedule. Snyder hasn't had a great season thus far, but the peripherals are still decent. It should be interesting to see whether he or Franklin Gutierrez is the everyday center fielder for the Aeros.

Placed 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff on the Disabled List (A+)

Another injury for a top prospect. Kouz probably would have been promoted to Akron by now, he was hitting .346/.398/.616 for the K-Tribe.

Activated SS Brandon Pinckney from the Disabled List (A+)


Friday, June 10, 2005

Transactions - Non-Cleveland Version

In the past couple days, there have a couple moves involving ex-Indians or players that could have been Indians.

Obviously the one that piqued my interest was the trade involving Placido Polanco and Ugueth Urbina. Yeah, Detroit threw in a utility infielder, but to me that's neither here nor there. Urbina is a better prize than Howry is now, but still the difference between Urbina and Howry isn't that much. Detroit can stick Polanco at second base, and shift Omar Infante, who hasn't been hitting this year, to the bench. Now obviously their bullpen gets weaker, especially considering Troy Percival's health, but by the same stretch they improve their offense, and it's a low-risk trade for them; both Urbina and Polanco are free agents at the end of the year, and the Tigers can still flip him for a prospect or two by the end of July if they remain out of the race.

I'm less disappointed that the Indians didn't the trade now that Aaron Boone has started to hit. Granted, he's still hitting below the Mendoza Line, but no longer are his at-bats futile attempts to hit the ball. Aaron is not chasing pitches down and away as much as he did before, which may pay dividends in the form of pitchers going to the inner half of the plate. Am I pronouncing him cured? Of course not; the damage he's inflicted upon the lineup isn't going to go away in the span of a week. But there's finally hope. Now that Casey Blake has been relegated to bench duty and Boone is starting to resemble a major-league position player, the lineup sickens me less and less every day now.

Another interesting move involved former Indian Ryan Drese; the Rangers designated him a couple days ago, and the Washington Nationals have just claimed him on waivers. Last year Drese was one of the better starters in the American League, relying on his sinker and low walk rates to get hitters out. Sound familiar? While Jake Westbrook has fallen off a bit from last year, Drese's numbers completely collapsed; he's walked (24) more than he's struck out (20), and his hit rate has been awful (96 in just about 70 innings pitched). So even though the Rangers signed him to a multi-year deal last offseason, they put him on waivers. Now there's a chance Drese can still be a useful pitcher, but his tale is cautionary one; you can't succeed forever without meeting minimum standards. Note that Jake Westbrook hasn't pitched as badly as his 2-9 record might indicate; a 5.00 ERA in the American League will keep you employed, and his peripherals haven't changed all that much versus last year. In fact, the only real difference is that Jake is giving up a greater amount of home runs; other than that, his ratios haven't changed that much.

Finally, the Devil Rays have DFAd former Indian Josh Phelps. I was wrong about Ryan Ludwick, but Phelps has been relatively healthy, and even though he's essentially a platoon DH, he's hit .286/.341/.464 against left-handed pitching so far this year, so someone is going to claim him. The interesting side of this transaction was that the Devil Rays had DFA Phelps to make room for Reggie Taylor, he of the lifetime .233/.275/.386 line. Meanwhile Jonny Gomes continues to obliberate AAA pitching.

The Indians did make a roster move recently, though it's not a huge one. They claimed RHP Jose Diaz off waivers from Tampa. Diaz is 25 years old, and had been pitching for the AA Montgomery Biscuits (what a great team name). Judging by his numbers, he has great stuff, but little idea where his pitches are going. It looks like the Indians may see some flaw in his mechanics, and with a couple roster spots to play with, took a chance on a live arm.

Breaking news: Milwaukee just flipped 2B Junior Spivey to the Nationals for RHP Tomo Ohka. The Brewers don't need Spivey anymore, with Bill Hall playing well and Rickie Weeks knocking on the door, so Brewers GM Doug Melvin (who I think is one of the more underrated GMs in the game) got a fifth starter in Ohka for Spivey. Spivey will fill in at second base until Jose Vidro is off the Disabled List, and after that would probably become some sort of super-sub. I don't believe Spivey can play shortstop, because that's where the Nats really need an upgrade thanks to Cristian Guzman's abysmal 2005 campaign

Update: Alex Cora's in the lineup for the fourth straight game?! What the &^%^#$&^!

Wednesday, June 08, 2005

Just Another Extra-Inning Game

The AL Central went 5-0 against the NL West tonight, which is amazing considering that the games were played in NL parks.

Tonight's game was giftwrapped by Khalil Greene; no doubt about it. But you have to at least mention Cliff Lee's start, probably the best of his young career. He struck out 9 and walked two in his seven innings of work. The bullpen was excellent, and Wickman saved the game in his usual fashion. And, like usual, the Indians couldn't put down a bunt when they needed one. This time, the culprit was Coco Crisp, who amazingly enough, got a bunt single earlier in the game. In situations where the bunt is absolutely called for, a guy like Coco has to put the ball on the ground.

Earlier in the day, the MLB Draft was held. For those who are unfamiliar with the process, the baseball draft is the complete opposite of the NFL's hype-fest. Actually, this year the rules were changed so that teams have about 15-20 seconds to make their picks (obviously to increase fan interest). And the clubs make their picks via a conference line. The Indians had two extra picks in the first three rounds thanks to Omar Vizquel, and they mostly picked bats in the early going. Here's a quick overview of the picks, but if you want more details, head over to Cleveland Indians Report.

OF Trevor Crowe: He's a polished switch-hitter with good on-base skills. Isn't that big, so maybe there's a chance he could move to the infield. Looks like a leadoff hitter to me, although it should be interesting to see how his plate discipline holds up in professional baseball. Like Michael Aubrey two years ago, Crowe was probably college baseball's best hitter when drafted. His ceiling is fairly low, but he should move quickly through the system.

OF John Drennen: A high school player with a good offensive game. He's probably going to be a left-fielder as a pro, so you're looking for power as he develops. A plus is his plate discipline, which combined with his power potential could make for an easier adjustment to professional baseball.

1B/LHP Stephen Head: The Indians drafted the Mississipi product as a first baseman, and unlike other players who get stuck at first base, Head is a good defender. His profile looks to me like Ben Broussard with a bit more power.

1B Nick Weglarz: This guy is huge; at 17 years old he's listed at 6'3" 205; who knows how big he'll eventually get? Weglarz probably has the most "projectability" out of the first group of draftees, but at the same time his development into a major-league hitter might take some time. He's a cold-weather kid (actually he's from Canada), so that also may contribute to a slow move up the organizational ladder.

RHP Jensen Lewis: Jeremy Sowers' teammate a year ago, Jensen is a right-handed finesse pitcher. He tops out in the low 90s, but has a good feel for his pitches, and can add or subtract from his pitches as needed. A low-ceiling pick, Lewis is probably a 4-5 starter at best in the majors, but the chances of flameout is pretty low.

Among the first five picks, I'd say Weglarz has the highest ceiling and Crowe is the closest to the majors. This draft was a pretty "safe" one for Scouting Director John Mirabelli; there isn't the impact talent there was from the 2003 haul, although I like the overall picks compared to last year's draft. But, we'll have to wait 3-4 years to really know how this draft went.



Monday, June 06, 2005

The Silver Lining

During a weekend where the Indians dropped two of three to White Sox, a weekend where FOX gave us the wit and wisdom of Darrin Jackson during Saturday's national telecast, and a weekend where Eddie Murray was fired, there are some good things going on with this team. CC Sabathia pitched well again, and although he doesn't have the requisite win percentage to give him the well-worn monicker of "ace," he's been the team's best and most consistent pitcher. But of course, he's a slob and he wears his hat sideways....

Grady Sizemore, who avoids walks like the plague, had a very good series, raising his average from .257 to .274. But the center fielder has taken only 10 walks thus far, not exactly what you're looking for in your leadoff hitter. His high strikeout-to-walk percentage is a red flag, especially given his propensity to swing at a lot of pitches. But otherwise, Sizemore has been as advertised; he's a good defender in center, has pretty good speed, and shows the potential to hit for power.

Speaking of hitting for power, Coco Crisp has boosted his OPS to a respectable .828, higher (for the moment) than Manny Ramirez. He's shown a surprising ability to hit home runs, something you wouldn't believe seeing him for the first time. His cutoff of Paul Konerko's single in the eighth inning was a fantastic play. He's growing on me.

Although Alex Cora was brought in to provide some insurance for Jhonny Peralta, it doesn't really appear that he's needed. Peralta, who has been pretty decent in the field, ranks highly in most offensive categories among AL shortstops. Given that he's up against guys like Miguel Tejada, Carlos Guillen, and Michael Young, that's pretty impressive. Hopefully the Wayne Kirby treatment goes away quickly.

Aaron Boone showed a pulse today. He was hitting singles the other way on Saturday and Sunday, a first step towards getting some semblance of an idea at the plate. Now Casey Blake looks worse, although this type of competition isn't one you want to see. Whoever had either on his or her HACKING MASS club has to be downright giddy right about now.

Offense hasn't exactly been a problem for Buffalo, who lost on Sunday despite scoring twelve (12) runs. Jake Gautreau had five hits, including two doubles. Brandon Phillips has gotten his average up to .261 after a dreadful start, and Ernie Young is now hitting .328. Fernando Cabrera, the one Bison pitcher not to give up a run, lowered his ERA to 0.84; he's ready.

In the upcoming series against the Padres, the Indians get to face the best pitcher you've never heard of: Jake Peavy. He's allowed only 57 hits in his 76 innings, and may be one of the early frontrunners in the NL Cy Young race. The only thing that's really missing from his resume is his win total; as Randy Johnson found out last year, voters like a large number of wins, no matter what your ERA says.






Sunday, June 05, 2005

Eddie Murray Fired

Whenever someone like a hitting coach or pitching coach is fired, it's really difficult to point to the exact cause of their removal. A hitting coach is probably better termed as an "approach coach;" most players have their own batting stances, but a hitting coach, in my mind, should be a problem-solver, a mentor, and a good observor. How good at these things were Eddie Murray? Having no access to the inner workings of the team, I have no clue.

"But!" you might say, "He was fired because the team wasn't hitting!" While that may be partly true, you have to separate cause from effect. Eddie Murray cannot go up to the plate and swing the bat. He cannot make Ronnie Belliard take breaking balls in the dirt. He cannot only tell Ronnie not to do so; it's ultimately up to the player to execute. But when players fail to execute, the hammer falls on the hitting coach, and despite past success, Murray was fired yesterday. The firing didn't seem like a snap judgment; the offense was pretty decent by this season's standards. So the issue becomes less about the team's performance and more about Murray's approach and communication with the players. I just can't believe that he was let go because the team wasn't hitting.

Anything I say is going to be speculation; I have no sources (real or imaginary) within the team, and since I have never been on or worked with a major-league club, I don't know exactly how a typical hitting coach operates. All I can do is to guess the reason. And my guess is that Murray was let go because of a lack of communication between he and the players. Murray, by all accounts, is not the type of hitting coach to initiate conversations with players regarding their swing. His personality, which perhaps is the reason he's in the Hall of Fame, could have been the reason why he's out of a job today. This isn't a knock Eddie's ability to understand how to hit, but how he communicates his knowledge is just as important in today's professional sports as the knowledge itself. It's unfortunate, but true.

Blaming the hitting coach for the team's stuggles at the plate is a conveinient and safe course of action. But at some point, you have to point at least some of the blame at the players or the person who procured them. The best hitting coach in the world could not make the Buffalo Bisons lead the American League in hitting. If you have inferior offensive talent, then there's only so much you can do as a coach. When the top two hitters in the order are getting on base less than thirty percent of the time, you won't be scoring many runs. When you have a hitter whose OPS is less than Ryan Ludwick's slugging percentage, then your offense will struggle.

On a side note, I propose that if the Indians insist on having a hitter who hits like a pitching in the lineup, then at the very least, that hitter should "help his own cause" like a pitcher. If someone's on base and there are less than two outs, he bunts. After the fifth inning or so, he should be lifted for a pinch hitter (double switch optional).

Which is why I'm proposing a trade that would help this club immensely. It's with the Philadelphia Phillies.

The Phillies Get:

RHP Bob Howry
IF Jose Hernandez

The Indians Get:

2B/3B Placido Polanco


All of the players involved in this proposed trade are free agents at the end of the year. Polanco makes more than Howry and Hernandez combined, but not too much. The Phillies are looking for a "proven" setup man, and Howry fits that bill. The Indians need a competent third baseman and a top-of-the-order hitter, and Polanco fits that bill. If the Indians are out of the race by July, they could easily flip Polanco to another team for a prospect. David Riske would replace Howry in the setup role, and Fernando Cabrera, who's been dominating AAA hitters, could be brought up to fill Riske's previous role. Aaron Boone would get moved to the bench, or he could agree to accept an assignment to Buffalo, in which case Mike Kinkade would be brought up to fill Jose Hernandez's role.

Essentially, both teams would get what they want without trading a prospect to do so. Will it happen? Probably not, because oftentimes the trades that seem to make the most sense don't materialize because of other unknown circumstances.

Saturday, June 04, 2005

Davis Up, Tallet Down

Recalled RHP Jason Davis from Buffalo (AAA)
Optioned LHP Brian Tallet to Buffalo (AAA)

What does a guy have to do to get a shot around here? Granted, Brian hadn't pitched in ten days, but his numbers for the Bisons were good enough to warrant at least a start. I had thought that Tallet would make his start today, then get shipped back down to Buffalo in favor of Davis, who would take over as the long man, at least until Kevin Millwood came off the Disabled List. I guess not.

I'd like to mention site a friend from the ESPN days has started: it's called the Indians Clubhouse, and it's a forum without the...problems..that the ESPN forums have.

Also check out Coco Crisp and Ben Broussard singing on "Oh Say Can You Sing?" Former Indians Omar Vizquel and Sean Casey also appear on the CD, and a portion of the proceeds goes to charity.

Finally, I'd like to share an e-mail I received from Rob:

Some schedule analysis:
I divided the teams that we, the Twins and the WSox play into 4 levels of competitiveness:

(1) Tough [Bos, Balt, LAA, LAD]
(2) Good [Tor, NYY, TX, AZ, SD]
(3) Fair [Det, Oak, Mil, Chi C, SF]
(4) Poor [KC, TB, Sea, Cin, Col]

Didn't rate White Sox, Twins, Indians as we play each other equal amounts.[Note that Indians are 3-3 vs Twins and 2-4 vs WS so far. Twins are 0-5 vs WS which is a big contributor to the WS current lead]. You may disagree with some of these placements but you get the idea.

Then I evaluated the difficulty of the schedule to-date (through 5/11) and going forward (leaving out games among the 3 above). Here are the results [# games vs (1), # games vs (2), ...]:

to-date: CWS [0, 3, 8, 11] Minn [6, 0, 5, 11] Tribe [5, 3, 6, 8]
Clearly the CWS have had the easiest schedule; although this isn't a big enough difference to totally account for the current standings, but maybe things aren't quite as bad as they appear!!

going forward:
rest of May - CWS [10, 6, 3, 0] Minn [0, 9, 3, 0] Tribe [3, 3, 3, 3]
June - CWS [4, 6, 6, 6] Minn [3, 9, 9, 3] Tribe [7, 6, 3, 6]
July - CWS [7, 0, 9, 6] Minn [13, 3, 4, 7] Tribe [3, 4, 6, 11]
August - CWS [4, 12, 0, 6] Minn [3, 3, 7, 10] Tribe [3, 9, 6, 10]
Sept/Oct - CWS [3, 0, 8, 6 ] Minn [0, 3, 9, 3] Tribe [0,0, 6, 10]

TOTAL -CWS [28, 24, 26, 24] Minn [19, 27, 32, 23] Tribe [16, 22, 24, 40]

It looks like the CWS have the toughest remaining schedule, then Minn and then the Tribe!
Some of this is driven by who the interleague opponents are (and how I rated them!). The CWS play the Cubs (6 times), COL, SD, AZ, LAD (3 times each). Twins play Mil (6 times), SF, SD, AZ, LAD (3 each). Tribe plays Cin (6 times), SF, SD, AZ, COL (3 each). So the Tribe gets those 6 games against CIN (which I rated the lowest) and 0 games against LAD (rated highest). If we can't gain some serious ground with this schedule advantage, then we're not as good as everybody hoped we would be! Of course, we have to win a fair share of our games with CWS and Twins.
First test of this starts now as the CWS have a tough remainder of May. Then June is a test for the Tribe. If we are in this thing at the end of June, then we have a real shot. July is Minnesota's test. Etc.


Thanks for all the work, Rob (note he sent the e-mail on May 11th, so there were some changes between then and now). Anyway,this shows that if the Indians can hang around through the end of June, the road gets easier. But right now, the remainder of this 12-game road is critical, since the Indians are the ones who have the catching up to do. Losing to El Duque last night really hurt, because the other two pitchers faced in the series are Chicago's best: Jon Garland and Mark Buerhle.

Friday, June 03, 2005

Ryan Ludwick Clears Waivers

Outrighted OF Ryan Ludwick to Buffalo (AAA)

I have to admit I was a bit shocked to hear no one put in a claim for Ludwick. A right-handed outfielder with power, who could have fit on at least five teams' bench, unclaimed? But I'm not complaining a bit; Ludwick will get to play every day in Buffalo, although it should be interesting to see who loses PT as a result. By the way, Ludwick couldn't have refused the assignment, as this is his first outrighting.

A bit of a postcript to my comments about the offense. With the return of Coco Crisp and the return of Victor Martinez's bat, there's a good chance that the Indians won't be the worst offensive team in the AL by the end of the season (heck, they have higher OPSs than four other AL clubs right now). But I point to the Casey Blake contract and his subsequent move to the outfield as a lack of perspective on Shapiro's part. Blake is nice story, and he's a pretty solid player given the right role. But in right field? Even if Blake returns to his career averages, that still makes him a below-average right fielder. I certainly can't blame him for Aaron Boone's nosedive, though Boone's signing was what precipitated Blake moving to the outfield in the first place.

Building a Mansion with Plywood

That's what trying to construct a lineup is like these days for manager Eric Wedge.

Now generally you have one of two opinions on the cause of the Indians' offensive malaise:

(a) It's Wedge's fault because he's the one who's putting the lineup together
(b) The players are the cause, because they aren't hitting.

I'm of the opinion that managers generally have less to do with the outcome of games than generally thought. Because baseball is at its heart a one-on-one matchup, there is little a coach or manager can do except to fix a player's mechanics, whether they are swinging or throwing. Finding a lineup, especially with the addition of several new players, is usually a gradual process, and by the end of the first month, you pretty much know where everyone's going to hit. But what happens if virtually everyone in the lineup can't hit? Well, you do what Wedge has been doing for the first two months and tinker. In many respects the lineup difficulties parallel what happened with the bullpen last year; there's only so much you can do when pretty much everyone sucks. The order matters less when you don't have the players to work with.

This year's lineup has very few obvious fits. Travis Hafner has the team's highest OBP, but you obviously don't want him leading off. Grady Sizemore, who is the team's stolen base leader, hasn't been drawing walks. And Coco Crisp has been injured. In the second hole, Casey Blake is one of the most patient hitters on the team, a good attribute for your second hitter to have, but Blake hasn't been, you know, getting hits. Add in regressions from Travis Hafner and Victor Martinez, the complete absence of Juan Gonzalez, and the absolute suck of Aaron Boone, and you have a group of offensive players that wouldn't score no matter how you placed them.

Now of course one argument for the importance of lineup construction states that because players are creatures of habit, sticking with one lineup for an appreciable amount of time, would result in the offense scoring more runs. I really don't buy that argument; although some players get pitched differently based on who the next hitter is, you first have to have someone worth pitching around. Other than Travis Hafner at times, who would you tread carefully against on this team? Jody Gerut has the team's highest OPS (.894), and that's based on 43 at-bats. There are exactly two players slugging above .500. There are two players with an OBP above .350. Grady Sizemore is miscast right now as the team's leadoff hitter, but who else is there? At some point you have to leave the abstract realm of form and get into the dirty world of function; it is there you will see that order is not the reason for the lack of runs; it's the lack of production by the component parts.

It's not all bad news for the team, though; they have started to hit better, today's performance notwithstanding (They posted a .749 OPS in May, good for 7th in the league). Exorcising Casey Blake and eventually (please?) Aaron Boone from the everyday lineup should have some positive effect on the overall offense. Juan Gonzalez was supposed to have helped, but that isn't happening. I still think Shapiro has to go out and get some help, because I don't see much in the way of internal options. He grossly miscalculated the dropoff on the offensive side, and now that the two month barrier has been passed, his task to is to strengthen the, because it's pretty difficult winning games when the offense scores four runs a game.

Thursday, June 02, 2005

A Blast and a Bloop

Giving Radke four inches on the outside corner should be criminal. Given Radke's surgical control, he didn't really have to throw a real strike all game, especially to left-handers. That Jody Gerut was able to single on an "outside" strike was a testament to how he's swinging. The strike was the same for both pitchers, but Cliff Lee didn't have the control to take advantage of it. Lee will lapse into stretches where he can't throw his off-speed pitches for strikes, and against a fastball-hitting lineup, that's a recipe for disaster. Of course, Ben Broussard's physical and Lee's mental error in the fourth inning probably cost the team four runs. Those four runs were more than enough for Radke and the Twins bullpen. Torii Hunter's other two RBI came on a bloop "double;" the ball dropped between Jhonny Peralta and Jody Gerut in shallow left field. I thought Gerut should have made the catch, but Peralta was there to make the play.

Placed OF Juan Gonzalez on the 15-day Disabled List (hamstring)
Reinstated OF Coco Crisp from the 15-day Disabled List

Crisp is back after only 15 days, and is starting in center field today. According to Tom Hamilton, Coco is wearing a brace on his right hand, but is otherwise ready to go. That's a huge boost to the lineup, because it makes Blake a backup.

And just I'm writing this, Coco Crisp just took Santana deep. Welcome back, Coco!

Wednesday, June 01, 2005

.500

Well, sticking to last year's script, the Indians have made it back to .500 after a bad start. This time, though, the pitching is what helped them there. Although I'm seeing some good things from the offense; Victor Martinez is starting to hit the ball with some authority, and Travis Hafner seems locked in again. Carlos Silva was leaving the ball up all night, and he really should have been charged with more runs than he allowed. But that's what happens when you ground into four double plays. CC Sabathia, who never seems in control of his stuff to start a game, settled down after a couple of rough early innings to get the win.

And then there's Juan Gonzalez, who injured his hamstring running to first base on his first at-bat of the season. No, you can't make this stuff up. I would guess someone like Ernie Young comes up for a week or so until Coco Crisp comes back. More importantly, this means a steady dose of Casey Blake and Aaron Boone in the lineup. I'm wishing for a trade (Rick mentioned Jonny Gomes, who looks to be caught up in a numbers game in Tampa), and I've already shown support for bring Placido Polanco in. With Ryan Ludwick on the block, it's time to get creative. Although Ludwick wouldn't be enough to get any of those two players in a one-for-one deal, the Indians have enough prospects where they could get a deal done.

As for short-term fixes, a couple of Buffalo veterens might be sufficient. Mike Kinkade, who can play third, first, and the outfield, is hitting .295/.382/.511 for Buffalo with pretty good plate discipline (25 K to 16 BB). Ernie Young is having a great first half, hitting .316/.417/.612 with 13 home runs.

Tonight's game (Lee vs. Radke) might mean the difference between a series win or loss, for the Indians have Scott Elarton going up against Johan Santana on Thursday.