Thursday, March 31, 2005

Out with the Old...

Released LHP Graeme Lloyd and OF Darren Bragg

Because of a tighter allotment of visas, the Indians couldn't keep Australian citizen Lloyd in their organization; he may have a tough time finding another one. Bragg should latch on with a AAA team near you.


And In with the New

Tomorrow we should know for sure who's playing where in the organization. I've take the liberty of guessing where the top prospects are playing, so take those with a grain of salt. I'll tackle completing the rest of the Depth Chart this weekend, so it should be all done by game time on Monday.

Wednesday, March 30, 2005

A Season Preview

I dislike making discrete win-loss predictions, and I try to stay away from predicting division winners, because I don't follow other teams to the degree I follow the Indians. Just think of this as a movie review without an arbitrary star rating.

The Indians are a better team than last season. There are less question marks on the roster, though they all haven't disappeared. When you have one of the lowest payrolls in the league, it's impossible NOT to have question marks. But the good thing about this roster is that there is little dead weight. Gone are John McDonald and Tim Laker, roster filler. Ryan Ludwick is a better fourth outfielder than Alex Escobar. Jose Hernandez is a better 1B platoon option than Lou Merloni. The bullpen (on paper) looks better, although I said the same thing last year. Kevin Millwood should improve the starting rotation, although an expected regression by Jake Westbrook may cancel out any gains brought about by the addition of Millwood.

Conceptually, what the Indians have done since June 2002 has to be considered a success; three years after dismantling an aging, overpriced team, they enter 2005 a young, exciting, and (most importantly) talented club. The real obstacle is still ahead, though. Getting to .500 isn't too difficult; going from a .500 team to the playoffs is. For this team to make the playoffs, some things have to go right. Run prevention has to get better, because I don't see this offense scoring 858 runs again. The bullpen has be an asset, not a liability. And players have to stay healthy, especially guys like CC Sabathia and Victor Martinez. While the farm system once again was ranked among the top 10 in baseball by Baseball America, depth can't patch the size of hole that Martinez or Sabathia would leave if injured. Of course, you could say this about any organization in baseball, so maybe it's redundant. But I think it's at least worth mentioning.

Juan Gonzalez, the Injury Time-Bomb, is less important. Yes, he's a nice guy to have hitting behind Martinez and Hafner, but the team can manage without him thanks to the presence of Ryan Ludwick and/or Grady Sizemore. Alex Cora is a nice insurance policy to have in case either Ronnie Belliard or Jhonny Peralta land on the shelf. This major-league depth probably represents the largest improvement over last year. If all goes well, it should allow players like Belliard and Martinez to stay fresh through the summer months, and gives manager Eric Wedge better late-game options.

Bob Wickman is expected to anchor the Indians' bullpen, and if he stays healthy, should keep it functioning. I'm definitely not saying Wickman is a great closer, but his presence should allow players to succeed in roles they're comfortable in. Relief pitchers are the most volatile of baseball players, so I'd be lying if I expected the seven players who made the club to be on the roster by early October. Players like Jason Davis, Fernando Cabrera, Andrew Brown, Brian Tallet, and Jake Robbins may have to contribute if someone implodes. Again, this is where having a deep roster should help.

Do I believe the Indians are a "championship-caliber team?" No. There's too may weak spots on the roster for me to say that. I do think they're capable of winning the division, and I do believe that they've set themselves up for better things and lofter goals in the coming years. Considering where this team was in 2002, being able to say that represents a massive improvement for the organization, and a lot of optimism for Tribe fans everywhere.

Tuesday, March 29, 2005

Bartosh Traded

Traded LHP Cliff Bartosh to the Chicago Cubs for RHP Bear Bay

Not a bad return for someone that Shapiro had to trade or lose. Bay isn't much of a prospect, but like Tom Mastny, he's an semi-interesting player. He's shown good control over his brief professional career (1.68 W/9), though that control may be all that's separating his 3.10 ERA last year from a much higher one, as evidenced by his hit rates. Bay should join Mastny in the Kinston rotation.

As for Bartosh, I think he can carve out a major-league career for himself, especially now that he's made a roster. But I thought the same of Carl Sadler and Alex Herrera, so take my opinions on young LOOGYs with a very large grain of salt.

Monday, March 28, 2005

Decisions, Decisions

Optioned OF Grady Sizemore, LHP Brian Tallet, and SS Brandon Phillips to Buffalo (AAA)

If the Gonzalez/Sizemore decision was by proxy Shapiro versus Wedge, then it looks like Shapiro won the argument, although this doesn't really condemn Sizemore to the same fate as Brandon Phillips; it's mainly a matter of time until Juan tweaks something (it was the right hamstring today), so Sizemore should get significant playing time in Cleveland. Phillips, on the other hand, is probably stuck unless Jhonny Peralta goes on the shelf for a long period of time. With Alex Cora a very capable short or long-term fix, Phillips is going to have to really rake in Buffalo to get a callup before September. Brian Tallet probably was the biggest pitching surprise in camp, but with two left-handers already in the bullpen, Tallet fell victim to a numbers game. Matt Miller certainly didn't help himself in his last couple outings, but he was pitching to left-handed hitters, which isn't going to happen once the games start to count.

Speaking of left-handers, Cliff Bartosh is probably going to be dealt before the season starts. Contrary to what I believed, he has no options remaining, so rather than trying to sneak him through waivers, the Indians are going to try to get something for him. He's left-handed and breathing, so there should be some interest.

Assigned RHP Paul Shuey, RHP Steve Watkins, and RHP Jason Bere to minor-league camp

Watkins should go in Buffalo's rotation, while Shuey and Bere stay behind in Winter Haven to rehab.

Signed 2B Danny Garcia to a minor-league contract

He should take the place of Warren Morris, who's out after breaking his finger. Garcia is a mildly interesting player; he had a couple good seasons in the Mets organization, including a .333/.391/.530 for Binghampton in 2003. His line in the majors is .227/.345/.361, which isn't too horrid for a backup infielder (for reference, here's John McDonald's career line). Fortunately, he shouldn't be needed.

Sunday, March 27, 2005

Prospect Profiles: Tony Sipp and Juan Valdes

20. LHP Tony Sipp
How Acquired: 2004 Draft (45th Round)
College: Clemson
ETA: 2007

YearLeagueAgeIPERAH/9W/9SO/9
2004SSA2142.23.166.962.7415.61


One of the steals of the 2004 draft, the Indians enticed Sipp to forego his senior year at Clemson, giving him 6th round money. The large bonus seems to have been worth it; Sipp was lights out with the Scrappers, striking out 74 in 42.2 IP. Sipp has a nice fastball-slider combo, but the Indians want him to learn a changeup to round out his repetroire. Thus far he's worked out of the bullpen, but if all goes well he might move into a starting role as his strength and endurance improves.


19. OF Juan Valdes
How Acquired: 2003 Draft (5th Round)
High School: Fernando Callejo (Manati, PR)
ETA: 2008

YearLeagueAgeAB2BHRSBBAOBPSLG
2003R+18130315.223.275.285
2004R+191344121.269.364.381
2004A-19970120.237.345.268


Why am I including a raw but "projectable" outfielder on this list, when there are other good prospects in the organization? Part of it is a leap of faith on my part, figuring that as his frame fills out, the power will come. Part of it is because he's already shown decent plate discipline. And part of it comes from glowing scouting reports. Valdes is a switch-hitter, a very good base stealer, and probably weighs 160 pounds soaking wet. If there's anyone in the organization poised for a breakout season, it's him. He's slated to start the season with the Captains.


Saturday, March 26, 2005

Transactions

Placed LHP CC Sabathia on the 15-day Disabled List (oblique)

This is the first trip to the DL in Sabathia's four-year career, and it doesn't look like he'll miss much time. Jason Davis, who looked good against the Reds on Friday, will take Sabathia's place in the rotation, and Matt Miller and Rafael Betancourt should both make the club as result. Jake Westbrook is slated to be the Opening Day starter.

Optioned Kazuhito Tadano to Buffalo (AAA)

Kaz didn't have too good a spring, posting an ERA of 9.00 (10 innings pitched). I'm going to assume he's still a starter, but that might be subject to change depending on the needs of the big-league club. The Bisons' pitching preview says Tadano could be either a starter or a reliever.

Assigned OF Andy Abad, IF Mike Kinkade, 1B Jeff Liefer, OF John Rodriguez, RHP Denny Stark, C Dusty Wathan, and LHP Chad Zerbe to minor-league camp

Most, if not all, of these players are going to play in Buffalo this year. Stark looks to be in the rotation, Liefer should be the starting first baseman, and Wathan will be Ryan Garko's caddy.

I've updated the Options page; after the season starts, I'll add salary and YOS info to the page as well.



Friday, March 25, 2005

Juan vs. Grady

As Spring Training winds down, it's becoming more and more obvious that Juan Gonzalez might not make the team. Witness these quotes by manager Eric Wedge:

"I want someone who has the total package, the total game," Wedge said. "I want the offense, the defense, the persona, the attitude, the energy, the whole nine yards."


"I've got to know I can count on [Gonzalez]," Wedge said. "I've got to know he's going to show up and play on a daily basis. He's got to be able to play the outfield and handle himself out there."


Now maybe I'm reading too much into things, but quotes like that seem to be code for "Gonzalez hasn't been good enough." Granted, his recent hamstring injury may have something to do with Juan's Lawton-esque fielding this spring, but Juan being health is almost as important (or maybe moreso) as Juan hitting. If it were my decision, I'd probably keep him around, knowing that Sizemore, Ludwick, and (eventually) Gerut could pick up the slack if Juan ends up on the DL again. You also can't discount Grady's play, who has done nothing but impress team officials this spring. Casey Blake's smooth transition to the outfield probably plays a part in this decision as well; from what I saw yesterday, he looked pretty good in left field.

What part does defense play in this decision? Scott Elarton and Cliff Lee are fly-ball pitchers, so placing Sizemore in center, Crisp in left, and Blake in right probably helps them out. The "attitute and energy" probably favors Grady as well. I don't know how much the team will credit Sizemore for his "intangibles," but it's kind of interesting that the younger player in the battle might win a spot because of them. The offense is firmly in Gonzalez's favor; although Grady should eventually become a nice weapon at the plate, Juan is still the better hitter. Placing him behind Hafner and Martinez would be nice protection for the two third-year players, and would take some pressure off them as the league adjusts.

I personally think this uncertainty is due more to Sizemore's positives than Gonzalez's negatives. Yes, the hamstring injury was the event that put Juan's roster spot in doubt, but without Sizemore, Juan probably makes the team anyway.



Thursday, March 24, 2005

The Moneyball Enigma

I'm pretty tired of season previews and player profiles right now (although I am working on my long-neglected prospect profiles), so I want to delve into organizational strategies again.

The buzzword among baseball television analysts in recent years has been "Moneyball". To some it means geeks pounding away at keyboards in the Oakland front office. Whenever I'm bored enough to turn on "Baseball Tonight," usually a Moneyball-related zinger gets thrown out by one of the many of their esteemed commentators that is really totally unrelated to the thesis of the book. Sometimes I hear backlashes on radio broadcasts, usually off-hand references to closers or strikeouts or even on-base precentage. It seems that the book has perpetuated a myth that continues to grow to this day; that Moneyball is all about statistics.

No, Moneyball is not about on-base percentage and strikeout-to-walk ratios. The Oakland A's (much like the Indians are now) were in a situation where they didn't have the resources to outbid teams for top performers, so they looked for areas where players were under-rated by the market. In the late 1990s, the most undervalued players were those who didn't have high batting averages, but could take a walk. So GM Billy Beane picked up a lot of players who fit this profile at a discount rate. Guys like Matt Stairs and Olmaedo Saenz and John Jaha were picked up cheap, and rewarded Oakland with several good seasons. But over the past couple of years, the word's gotten out, and these type of players aren't as affordable as before.

What's the moral of the story? It isn't about OBP or whatever else is in vogue at the time; it's about finding players who are undervalued by the market. In recent years, defense has become an undervalued commodity. More recently, the Indians seem to have concentrated on injured players as undervalued commodities; they have been among the most-lauded organizations as far as rehab is concerned, and judging by some recent triumphs (Jack Cressend, Bob Howry, etc), they have had some success in this area. They have used minor-league free agency well, grabbling guys like Casey Blake, Matt Miller, and Rafael Betancourt for peanuts. What they've done isn't exactly what Beane did in Oakland, but the spirit seems to be the same; exploiting market inefficiencies to grab undervalued players. The Twins are probably one of the most stathead-phobic organizations around, but they do an excellent job in player development and scouting, which they use to their advantage. The Atlanta Braves have rode their tools-based philosophy to umpteen straight division titles. In other words, it isn't about OBP or drafting college players per se; it's identifying what you do best and using it as a competitive advantage.

But of course, your organization has to actually do something well in order to exploit it. If you run a small-market organization just like the Yankees, you won't win because you can't run your organization like the Yankees and have success. What works for some teams just won't work for others. The Atlanta Braves probably wouldn't be as successful if they went to a statistically-oriented player evaluation strategy. That's why it's possible to win in baseball despite the disparity in payrolls; teams do things differently. If you can structure your organization in a way that maximizes your chances of winning, whether that be by constructing a proprietary computer system or building a top-notch training staff, you can beat the big-money behemoths. You won't win every time, but that sure beats trying hopelessly to win by emulating the same strategy as everyone else.





Monday, March 21, 2005

More Assignments

Placed OF Jody Gerut on the 15-day Disabled List (knee)

Because the Indians shouldn't need a roster spot right away, they're keeping their options open in case Gerut is ready to play sooner rather than later. If Jody is ready for action in late May, Mark Shapiro and Eric Wedge have some interesting decisions to make. If you count Grady Sizemore, the team would have six competent major-league ready outfielders on the roster, and only Gerut and Sizemore have options remaining.

[EDIT] Reader Alex pointed out that Coco Crisp also has an option remaining. Which means the decision becomes even more interesting if everyone's healthy.

Speaking of options, I should have my options page up by the end of the week. Until then, here's the players which (I believe) have options (along with the years) remaining:

Pitchers: Cliff Bartosh (1), Rafael Betancourt (1)*, Andrew Brown (2), Fernando Cabrera (2), Fausto Carmona (3), Francisco Cruceta (2), Jason Davis (1), Kyle Denney (3), Jake Dittler (3), Jeremy Guthrie (1), Cliff Lee (1), Matt Miller (1), Jason Stanford (1), Kazuhito Tadano (2), Brian Tallet (1)

Catchers: Josh Bard (1), Victor Martinez (1)

Infielders: Jhonny Peralta (1), Brandon Phillips (1)

Outfielders: Coco Crisp (1), Jody Gerut (1), Franklin Gutierrez (3), Grady Sizemore (2)

I'm a bit unsure about Betancourt, but the rest I'm fairly certain about.

Anyway, back to the assignments:

Optioned RHP Fernando Cabrera, RHP Francisco Cruceta, and RHP Kyle Denney to Buffalo (AAA)

Cabrera has had a horrid camp; more specifically, he hasn't been able to throw strikes. Lack of control is the last thing you want a reliever to have, so he'll go back to Buffalo and work on his mechanics. Cruceta and Denney are probably among the top starter options should there be a need sometime this season.

Assigned C Ryan Garko, RHP Kenny Rayborn, and RHP Jake Robbins to minor-league camp

Garko, along with Franklin Gutierrez, has impressed the Indians the most this spring. Ryan is still a catcher, though that may be subject to change as the year progresses. If someone like Jose Hernandez has to go on the DL, I wouldn't be shocked to see Garko recalled to serve as a platoon first baseman. Rayborn and Robbins are both veteren minor-leaguers; Robbins probably has the better shot of a call-up.

Sunday, March 20, 2005

Remembering Robbie

Yesterday Roberto Alomar announced his retirement from baseball. For me, Alomar retiring before the 2005 is kind of a shock remembering how good he was in his three-year stint with the Indians. The season he had in 1999 ranks right up there with Albert Belle's 1995 as the best individual season I've seen an Indians player have. Here's his line in 1999:

563 AB, .323/.422/.533, 40 2B, 24 HR, 120 RBI, 37 SB, 6 CS

He finished third in the MVP balloting that year behind Ivan Rodriguez and Pedro Martinez (Manny Ramirez finished fourth). Those are impressive numbers at any position, but doing it as a second baseman is incredible. And, lest I forget, he won his 8th (out of an eventual 10) Gold Glove that year. Along with Omar Vizquel, Alomar formed the best double-play combination I've seen in my 20 years of watching baseball.

In 2001, Alomar finished 4th in MVP balloting, then fell off the face of the earth. I have no explanation as to Alomar's freefall, and no I don't think the trade had much of anything to do with it. Middle infielders tend not to age gracefully, but what happend to Alomar defies explanation. I guess you could compare Alomar's career to that of Carlos Baerga, but even that really isn't a good comp; Baerga was never that good a fielder, and Alomar was a much more patient hitter that Carlos was (and still is). The only parallels were that both were Indians, and both were dealt at exactly the right time. And both were traded to the New York Mets. My best guess is that he physically broke down all at once, including his reflexes and vision.

In my mind Alomar is as sure-fire a Hall of Famer as you can get. Assuming the writers look past the spitting incident and Roberto's other flaws (which is a big assumption, considering who votes for the Hall), I don't see how anyone can not vote for him based strictly on his playing career. He was the best second baseman of his era, he was a key contributor on two World Series champions, won 10 Gold Gloves, will finish with over 2700 hits, 1100 RBIs, finished in the MVP voting 5 times, was a 12-time All-Star, and finished his career with a .300/.371/.443 line. If Ryne Sandberg's in (and deservedly so), Roberto Alomar should definitely be in.

Saturday, March 19, 2005

Transactions

Optioned RHP Andrew Brown and OF Franklin Gutierrez to Buffalo (AAA)

It's been almost a year since Milton Bradley was traded to the Dodgers, and the rewards are close to being realized. Brown and Gutierrez both had tremendous springs, but need more seasoning at the AAA level (and maybe a little at the AA level for Gutierrez). Brown has been coverted to a relief pitcher, and may move quicker than Gutierrez, who has to polish his swing and contend with an organizational surplus of outfielders. Brown has great stuff, but needs to fine-tune his command to make it to Cleveland. Nevertheless, both have good shots at seeing action some time this season.

Denny Stark had been impressive so far this spring; he probably wasn't going to win a spot, but could have been among the early-season callups. Then this happened. He allowed 10 runs in 1.2 innings, and gave up two home runs (including one to pitcher Mike Hampton). Brian Tallet pitched well again, throwing two shutout innings; I've never been that impressed with Tallet even before the elbow injury, but he's left-handed, so he may work his way into a bullpen job down the road. And Juan Gonzalez played, which is always a good thing; at this point, Juan can't have another setback, or he'll probably be gone (no pun intended).

Don't miss the outstanding Indians preview from Baseball Think Factory's Matthew Rich. In the preview is included an interview with assistant GM Chris Antonetti, and one of the questions involved the team's willingness to sign injured players. Since injured players are going to be undervalued commodities, if you have a good rehab program, you can get a great return if the player recovers from an injury. If the team can build for itself a sort of niche as an organization that's good at resurrecting careers, they might attract more of these types of players based just on their reputation.

Thursday, March 17, 2005

More Extensions

Signed Manager Eric Wedge to a two-year extension (through 2007)

It's been two seasons since Eric Wedge became manager, and I still can't pidgeon-hole him. He isn't a true over-the-top firebrand like Larry Bowa, but he's an intense guy. He spends most of the winter in the front office consulting about player moves. From what I can tell, he gets along extremely well with Shapiro, and everyone in the clubhouse not named Milton Bradley. He's been judicious with young pitching, especially during the 2003 season. He was willing to be patient with young players. These things can obviously change, but two years is a long time to hide a flaw. His handling of the Bradley incident was exceptional; he showed a lot more restraint than I would have given the comments aimed at him after the trade.

But is he a good manager? The jury's still out. Until now, he hasn't been given enough ammunition to win with. Now, with the team a legitimate threat to win the division, we'll be able to answer that question.

Signed everyone else on the staff through 2006

This includes pitching coach Carl Willis, hitting coach Eddie Murray, third base coach Joel Skinner, first base coach Jeff Datz, bench coach Buddy Bell, bullpen coach Luis Isaac, and bullpen catcher Dan Williams. I like what Murray's done with the young hitters, and I'm not sold on Carl Willis yet. The others? Well, Luis Isaac has been in the organization forever, and the other guys seem to be doing a good job; I mean, how do you judge how well a first base coach does his job (and self-defense skills when in Chicago don't count)?

Tomorrow is the trifecta; St. Patrick's Day, the NCAA tournament, and the last day before Spring Break. I predict a massive flu outbreak.

Tuesday, March 15, 2005

Transactions

Optioned RHP Fausto Carmona and RHP Jeremy Guthrie to Buffalo (AAA)

I guess you can see what the Indians think about Guthrie by sending him out this early in camp. I believe he's still a starter, but the clock is really ticking; I think 2005 is a "make or break" season for Guthrie. If he can't get out AAA hitters, especially at his age, he might be sent packing at the end of the year. His strikeout rate, even when he had success in 2003, was low; his career professional strikeouts/9 is 5.89. That's almost as low as Jake Westbrook's career numbers, and Jake is a groundball pitcher.

I'm a bit surprised that Carmona is being sent to Buffalo. He wasn't all that good in Akron last year, but maybe he's been impressive in camp. Given the Indians' usual conservativeness with promoting pitching prospects, this might be a good sign for Carmona. He turned 21 last December, so Fausto still has a lot of upside. I like his control, but he's still a bit too hittable to get me excited just yet. I placed him #5 in my prospect rankings, which might be a bit of an overreach in hindsight. But who knows?

Optioned RHP Jake Dittler to Akron (AA)

Ditter's downfall in 2004 was the drop in control. He'll have another year in Akron to get things figured out.

Assigned C Javi Herrera, IF Jose Morban, and 3B Jake Gautreau to minor-league camp

Herrera is a classic catch-and-throw backstop, but he's going to have to hit in order to be anything other than a backup catcher. Gautreau got a lot of playing time early in the season, but with Aaron Boone healthy enough to play everyday now, he's expendable. He's probably Buffalo's starting third baseman this spring.

Check out the Hardball Times' new article on line drives and future projections. Studes examines the difference between line drive rates and BABIP. On the offensive side, Travis Hafner made the list with a .170 difference between his LD% (.186) and BABIP (.356). What does this mean? Usually this indicates some luck, and the next year the hitter usually sees a decline in batting average. Hafner's kind of a strange addition to the list, because it's mainly filled with slap-hitting, speedy players like Ichiro, Alex Sanchez, and Rocco Baldelli.

Among pitchers, Jake Westbrook and Scott Elarton appear on the "lucky" side, and Kevin Millwood and Jason Davis appear on the "unlucky" side.

Monday, March 14, 2005

2005 Prospect Profiles - Honorable Mention

First of all, allow me to comment on the NCAA tournament.

As someone who's seen a lot of MAC basketball games, I'm pretty ticked that the league didn't get an at-large team in the tournament. I guess the problem is that the league is so balanced that no team tends to stand out, but the selection committee has stiffed the conference for so long it's getting a bit comical. I'd probably take Miami-Ohio over Buffalo, but I really thought one of them would get in. Four teams (Miami, Buffalo, Ohio, and Kent) finished in the top 40 in RPI; Miami was the only school in the RPI top 30 not to make the tournament. Because the MAC is recognized as one of the better conferences in the country, no big program wants to play a MAC school on their home court. The MAC did get four teams into the NIT, but that's little solace for a conference that frankly deserved another NCAA bid.

Ok, rant over. Now for five guys that didn't make my prospect list, but are worth watching. Even with these mentions, I could feel comfortable mentioning 5-7 more, that's how deep the system is right now.

SS Brandon Pinckney
12th round, 2003 draft

Listed at 165 pounds, the David Eckstein comparisions seems apt. The Indians needed a shortstop in Akron last year, so they promoted Brandon all the way from Lake County; he responded by posting a .311/.388/.355 line, which is pretty good considering he had more at bats in rookie ball (257) than in Low-A ball (172) at the time. I still don't think his ceiling is that high, but he could make a nice utility player eventually. I would guess he starts the season in Akron.

RHP Kyle Denney
26th round, 1999

I've been banging the drum for him awhile, but Denney has gotten the Indians' full attention with a pretty good spring thus far. In his 5-year minor-league career, he's struck out 8.36 per 9 innings, and allowed 8.12 hits per 9 innings. He's going to be 28 this season, but he still deserves a shot at some point this year. And it looks like he'll get it, given the team kept him on the 40-man roster last winter. He'll start the year in Buffalo's rotation.

LHP Scott Lewis
3rd round, 2004

This is a projection pick, but the upside is there for Scott Lewis. The Ohio State product was injured much of 2004 (Tommy John surgery), but was dominant in 2003, striking out 127 in 83.2 IP for the Buckeyes. I'd guess he'd start in Lake County, so check him out this season if you're in the area.

RHP Tom Mastny
11th round, 2003 (Toronto)

He just turned 24, and he's only made it to the South Atlantic League, but he was so dominant in 2004 that I almost have to include him here. By all accounts his stuff isn't overpowering, but he someone who can prove himself every step of the way like Kyle Denney and make the majors. I'd guess Kinston as this year's destination for Mastny, or possibly Akron. He came in the John McDonald trade.

OF Mike Butia
5th round, 2004

There's a lot to like about Butia, who has good power, pretty decent speed, and is a good defender. Thanks to a backlog of outfielders ahead of him in the organziation, Butia might be stuck in Lake County much of next year, much like Ryan Goleski was in 2004. He was the first position player taken by the Indians in the 2004 draft.

Others worthy: 3B Matt Whitney, LHP Mariano Gomez, RHP Sean Smith, RHP Dan Denham, LHP Chuck Lofgren, C Wyatt Toregas, 2B Joe Inglett


Transactions

Assigned LHP Billy Traber, LHP Mariano Gomez, C David Wallace, and OF Darnell McDonald to minor-league camp

Traber isn't ready to pitch in game situations yet, so he'll continue to rehab in minor-league camp. Traber might be ready by the end of this season.

Friday, March 11, 2005

Streamlining

I've placed my unscientific, unreliable, and unconscionable prospect list to the right. I'll be tracking the players as they advance through the system, so I figured the promising players needed a place of their own. Of course, Adam Miller has fallen to the first annual Compendium Curse, and has been shut down until early summer. There are a couple players that didn't make it that I feel are interesting enough to keep an eye on, so I'm probably going to mention them in the next couple of weeks. Yes, I could have just expanded my list to 30 (or more), but I'd rather keep the list shorter. I'll also profile the 20 that did make the list during March.

My next projects are revamping the Options and Depth Chart pages. I'd like to convert them to HTML once and for all, removing the hideous Word format once and for all from my site. If you've recently come across this blog, well, count yourself lucky, because you might have seen this had you found me in 2002.





Thursday, March 10, 2005

Death, Taxes.....

And a Juan Gonzalez injury. It's the dreaded hamstring strain this time. Hamstrings aren't the type of injury that just goes away; especially in baseball, a player is one change of direction away from injuring it further. Combine that with Gonzalez's injury history, and you have a big blow to Juan making the club.

Grady Sizemore is next in line, and he's been playing well enough to make the club. As far as I'm concerned he's ready for the majors now. Having Sizemore in center strengthens the outfield defense, but you obviously would lose a lot of power in the lineup. But Sizemore does have some pop; for what it's worth, Baseball Prospectus really likes Sizemore in 2005, projecting a .285/.358/.447 line for Grady (projected 356 at-bats). He might be a better leadoff option than Coco Crisp down the road, but hitting him second in the lineup against right-handers would be a great spot for him this year.

With Sizemore in the lineup, here's the 2005 baseball ages of the projected starters:

Coco Crisp - 25
Grady Sizemore - 22
Victor Martinez - 26
Travis Hafner 28
Casey Blake - 31
Ben Broussard - 28
Ronnie Belliard - 30
Aaron Boone - 32
Jhonny Peralta - 23

That's a pretty young lineup. Not as young as the lineup in 2003, when at times the team ran 9 rookies out there every day. But for a team that scored 858 runs last year, that's young. That's what's so promising about this team; not that they were successful last year, but that there's still room for improvement based on how young the lineup is.

Of course, Gonzalez could still recover from the hammy and accumulate 400 or so at-bats. But right now, I think that's wishful thinking, especially given what's happened in the past three seasons. So let the Grady Sizemore era begin.

Wednesday, March 09, 2005

Insider Trading - ST Edition

The Bench

It's kind of weird to say this about a team with one of the lower payrolls in baseball, but the Indians might have the best bench in the game.

BUYS

C Josh Bard
2004 WARP: 0.6

Bard's absence due to various injuries lead the Indians to keep Tim Laker on the roster all last year. Predictably, Eric Wedge ran Victor Martinez into the ground rather than sit him in favor of Laker. Now that Bard is back, Laker's been banished to Tampa, and the Indians have a credible option at backup catcher. Bard will probably be trade bait as he becomes more expensive, but for the next couple seasons he should be one of the best backups in the business.

OF Ryan Ludwick
2004 WARP: 0.1

A Rangers fan I know termed Ludwick a right-handed version of Todd Hollandsworth after he was dealt for Ricardo Rodriguez in 2002. That prediction looks pretty accurate. Ludwick still should be able to play center field, at least according to early reports out of Spring Training. Because he's out of options, he'll be a bench player, providing some right-handed pop in the late innings.

HOLDS

IF Jose Hernandez
2004 WARP: 3.4

The right half of Los Angeles' 2004 second base platoon, Hernandez will be playing more of a utility role for the Indians. Jose can play all over the field, but his bat is what will get him into the lineup. Another nice late-inning option.

SELLS

IF Alex Cora
2004 WARP: 4.8


Cora's 2004 was in most respects a career year. He posted a career high in home runs (10), although they seem to have come at the expense of doubles (9). That's a weird combination considering the park where he played, so I'm betting that ratio won't hold this year. He's a perfect fit with Ronnie Belliard; he's the better defensive player, and he's a left-handed hitter. He could also fill in at shortstop for a month or so if need be.

Monday, March 07, 2005

A Farewell to Arms

These two headlines aren't what you like to see if you're an Indians fan:

Miller strains right elbow ligament

Sabathia sidelined with strained muscle

Adam Miller's injury is the more serious of the two; there's a possibility that he may need Tommy John surgery, but the team is taking the more conservative approach right now, which is understandable. Miller is one of the best pitching prospects the Indians have had in some time, and to lose him to an arm injury is just awful. Hopefully rest will fix the problem, as it did with JD Martin a couple years ago. But either way, his ETA in Cleveland just got pushed back at least a year.

Sabathia's injury, on the surface, looks minor. The muscle is on the non-throwing side of his body, and although he may miss 7-10 days, he shouldn't miss too much time once the regular season starts. He might not start on Opening Day because of Spring Training time lost, though.

Sunday, March 06, 2005

Insider Trading - ST Edition

The Relievers

As a group, the bullpen has a lot of room for improvement, given what happened in 2004. But let's try to differentiate between the first-half bullpen and the second-half bullpen. Remember, Bob Wickman, Bob Howry, and Matt Miller were brought in later in the season, replacing guys like Scott Stewart, Jose Jimenez, and Jeriome Robertson. David Riske and Rafael Betancourt (to a lesser extent) turned things around in the second half as well. Here's the second half numbers from returning bullpen members:

Bob Wickman - 26.2 IP, 4.72 ERA, 29 H, 24 SO, 8 BB
Bob Howry - 34.0 IP, 3.18 ERA, 28 H, 31 SO, 10 BB
David Riske - 33.2 IP, 3.12 ERA, 28 H, 28 SO, 18 BB
Rafael Betancourt - 30.2 IP, 3.23 ERA, 28 H, 36 SO, 10 BB
Matt Miller - 34.0 IP, 2.91 ERA, 26 H, 30 SO, 14 BB

That's not a bad bullpen. Unfortunately, the ugliness of April overshadowed July and August. Bob Wickman, who isn't a dominating closer by any stretch of the imagination, will force the rest of the bullpen into roles that they've thrived in. That will hopefully make the 2005 bullpen somewhat of a strength.

BUYS

Rafael Betancourt
2004 WARP: 3.3

Raffy was probably the best reliever on the team from April to June. Unfortunately, the rest of the bullpen was so horrid that he was misused as a setup man because no one else could get the game to the 9th inning. After Wickman and Howry joined the team, Betancourt found his niche as a 7th inning reliever. This spring, there's a chance that he won't make the club, which is mind-boggling.

Matt Miller
2004 WARP: NA

He looks like a reincarnation of Steve Reed, a former Indian. Like Reed, Miller is an extreme-groundball pitcher. Hitters batted only .216 against Miller last season, making him an extremely effective change-of-pace pitcher out the bullpen. Like Betancourt, Miller may be on the outside looking in.

Arthur Rhodes
2004 WARP: 1.5


A failed closer in Oakland, Rhodes was dealt in two salary dump trades over the winter; to the Pirates in the Jason Kendall trade, and to the Indians for Matt Lawton. I don't think he's going to be anywhere near what he was in 2000-2001, but a expecting a rebound season is reasonable.

HOLDS

Bob Wickman
2004 WARP: 1.6

If he's healthy, Bob will give you 50-60 mediocre innings, racking up about 35 saves, and increasing sales of pacemakers in Cleveland by 50%. As I said earlier, his worth may be more as a placeholder than a linchpin.

David Riske
2004 WARP: 4.0

Now that Riske is a permanent setup man, look for him to settle down as a dominant 7th or 8th inning pitcher. His hit rates climbed last year, but declined over the course of the year as his brutal April got farther and farther away.

Scott Sauerbeck

This year's injury rehab project. Given the choice between Sauerbeck, Miller, or Betancourt, I'd take the two right-handers. At his best, Scott is a dominant pitcher against left-handers who can also get right-handers out if needed. Left-handed hitting has hit a lifetime .201 against Sauerbeck, which may mean he's the team's LOOGY in the middle to late innings. He's coming off a one-year layoff thanks to shoulder problems, so my expectations are tempered.

SELLS

Bob Howry
2004 WARP: 2.6

Another in the long line of retreads made good, Howry was the best pitcher in the bullpen down the stretch last year. Even in a contract year, though, Howry is going to be hard-pressed to repeat his 2004 performance. Don't read too much into this rating; like Westbrook, Howry's just a bid overvalued at this point. Bob may slot down to the 7th inning if Riske comes out hot.

Transactions

Signed C Josh Bard, RHP Andrew Brown, RHP Fernando Cabrera, RHP Fausto Carmona, OF Coco Crisp, OF Franklin Gutierrez, 1B Travis Hafner, C Victor Martinez, RHP Matt Miller, SS Jhonny Peralta, and RHP Kazuhito Tadano to 2005 Contracts.

And so everyone on the 40-man roster has a contract for this season. It looks like there will be no multi-year deals for Martinez and Hafner, although it appears negotiations are still on-going. Brown has been moved to the bullpen, so he may move a bit quicker than if he remained a starter. Cabrera, Brown, and Tadano and going to Buffalo barring a barrage of injuries, and Gutierrez and Carmona are probably going to start in Akron, with a mid-season promotion to Buffalo if they do better this time around.

Invited LHRP Graeme Lloyd to Spring Training

Old LOOGYs don't retire; they simply run out of clubs to tryout with.

Friday, March 04, 2005

Insider Trading - ST Edition

The Lineup

C Victor Martinez
2004 WARP: 5.5
Rating: BUY

The biggest reason for my optimism is a healthy Josh Bard; with a competant backup, Eric Wedge should feel more comfortable sitting Martinez twice a week if need be. Martinez's offense faded in July and August because he was better even tired than Tim Laker.

OPS by month (2004)

April: .799
May: .939
June: .968
July: .866
August: .789
September: .748

Victor will never be mistaken for a great defensive catcher, but posting .285 EQAs forgive a lot of shortcomings behind the plate.

1B Ben Broussard
2004 WARP: 4.5
Rating: SELL

Broussard posted ungodly numbers with RISP last season:

Situational OPS (2004)

Runners on: .903
RISP: .954
RISP (2 outs): .911
Bases loaded: 2.238

That's not going to happen again, and should reduce Broussard's stature a bit. Ben has some things going for him, though: he's a patient hitter (52 walks in 470 ABs), has decent power, and is not a liability at first base. But he's not a player you should pay a ton of money to, and with Michael Aubrey a year away, Broussard may be moved after the season. For this year, Ben should get some more looks against left-handers, as Jose Hernandez is going be more a utility infielder than a platoon players.

2B Ronnie Belliard
2004 WARP: 4.6
Rating: SELL

Belliard's torrid April turned an otherwise average year into an All-Star appearance. Average is fine with me for what the Indians are paying him. The odds of Belliard making another All-Star team is slightly higher than Butch Davis getting another NFL head coaching job, but he's still a nice complementary player.

SS Jhonny Peralta/Brandon Phillips
Rating: BUY/HOLD

Peralta is probably the front-runner here, but Phillips is still in the picture. Whoever wins the job is going to be put under the microscope given the guy who used to play there. I like Peralta's bat better than Phillips', but Brandon is the better defender. If the Indians fail to pick up Belliard's 2006 option, the problem resolves itself, but for this year, the loser gets banished to AAA. I'm betting on Peralta winning the job and not relinquishing it. He's not a rookie anymore, but I think he could put up numbers similar to last year's ROY, Bobby Crosby.

3B Aaron Boone
Rating: HOLD

Another of the horde of decent players on the roster, Boone represents a defensive upgrade at third base, and probably a slight downgrade in offense. He probably won't steal 30 bases again, especially after two knee surgeries. His lack plate discipline doesn't endear him to statheads, but he should bat down enough in the lineup so his propensity to hack shouldn't matter as much.

LF Casey Blake
2004 WARP: 4.3
Rating: SELL

Moving right on the defensive spectrum automatically decreases his value, and Blake's 2004 looks like a career year, so I think Casey is due for a big dropoff in 2005. I have no qualms about his defense, given that he's essentially replacing Matt "Immovable" Lawton; it's the offense that concerns me. Hitting 28 home runs at age 30 isn't necessary a harbinger of future power exploits, especially after a career spent mostly bouncing around the minors.

CF Coco Crisp
2004 WARP: 3.2
Rating: HOLD

At this point, Coco Crisp is essentially Kenny Lofton minus the stolen bases and plate discipline. Which doesn't really say much at all other than to demonstrate why I'm still skeptical about Crisp's viability as an everyday outfielder. The encouraging thing is that Coco has a minor-league history of taking walks and stealing bases. With Grady Sizemore, a better fielder, waiting in the wings, Crisp has to become a better leadoff threat in order to play a corner.

RF Juan Gonzalez
2004 WARP: 0.3
Rating: BUY

Ok, I'm a glutton for punishment, maybe because last time I saw Gonzo in an Indians uniform, he had a comeback season. I'll settle for 400 ABs and 20 HR.

DH Travis Hafner
2004 WARP: 6.6
Rating: HOLD

There's really nowhere else to go but down for Pronk, but I don't see too much of a fall-off. The peripherals are still strong, and Hafner is player who seems be to fine with being a full-time DH. If Gonzalez is hitting behind him, he should get enough pitches to mash.

Thursday, March 03, 2005

Transactions

Signed 1B Ben Broussard, RHP Francisco Cruceta, RHP Jason Davis, 2B/SS Brandon Phillips, RHP Kyle Denney, OF Jody Gerut, LHP Cliff Lee, and OF Grady Sizemore to 2005 contracts

These are most of the high-profile renewables, excepting Victor Martinez and Travis Hafner, who may be getting multi-year deals. Broussard is a lock to be arbitration-eligible next season, so depending on how Michael Aubrey does this season, Broussard may become trade bait next offseason. Jody Gerut's knee injury probably will cost him some dollars in arbitration next year. Jason Davis and Cliff Lee will probably be in the "super-two" range, so how they pitch this season will determine their paydays next winter. Denney, Sizemore, and Cruceta are at least two years away from arbitration.

Here's the salary figures for the renewables already signed (scroll down).

Extended the contracts of Assistant GM - Scouting Director John Mirabelli, Assistant GM Chris Antonetti, Director of Player Development John Farrell, and Special Assistant to the GM Neal Huntington through the 2007 season.

Essentially Mark Shapiro is keeping his front office staff together through the remainder of his current deal. Mirabelli has done a tremendous job in recent drafts, especially the 2003 draft, where he selected Michael Aubrey, Brad Snyder, Adam Miller, and Ryan Garko in the first three rounds. Chris Antonetti is essentially Shapiro's second-in-command, and has been mentioned frequently as a future GM candidate; he's the sabermetric guy in the front office. John Farrell is in charge of players in the minor-league system, which is in still in great shape after all the recent graduations. Neal Huntington's main job is advance major-league scouting, which to my knowledge will be done live this year; before most of the scouting had been done via video tape.

Please keep Adam Miller's right elbow in your prayers.

Remember, this afternoon is the first Spring Training game! For those of you in the Cleveland area, WTAM (1100 AM) will be airing it beginning at 1:05 PM.

I'll continue my players ratings tomorrow with the position players, move on to the bullpen on Saturday, and finish up with the bench on Monday.



Tuesday, March 01, 2005

Insider Trading - ST Edition

Instead of the standard comments, I'm going to treat the projected 25-man roster as a stock portfolio. I'll give each player an analyst rating: strong buy, buy, hold, sell, or strong sell. Note that for some players, a "sell" rating isn't necessarily bad; it just means that I think they're overvalued at the moment. I'll be using Baseball Prospectus' WARP as the baseline for my analysis. I'll repeat this exercise a couple times during the year, and you can make fun of me then if you'd like. Here goes...

The Starters

LHSP CC Sabathia
2004 WARP: 6.1
Rating: HOLD

Although Sabathia has come into camp 10-15 pounds lighter, I don't see too much upside. He's still a good pitcher, and with a better bullpen I could easily see him win a couple more games. But that would be a superficial gain in value, not a real gain. Regardless of his age, Sabathia has been a remarkably cosistent pitcher since he joined the Indians at the tender age of 20; he's posted WARPs of 5.6, 6.5, 6.9, and 6.1 in his first four seasons. That's pretty incredible if you think about it, given the flameout rates of young pitchers. CC is definitely still the best pitcher on the staff, but I think his career has reached a plateau.

RHSP Jake Westbrook
2004 WARP: 8.4
Rating: SELL

Westbrook isn't going to fall off the face of the earth, but expecting him to be one of the top 5 pitchers in the AL again is too much to ask. I've beaten the dead horse enough recently, so I'll just leave it at that.

RHSP Kevin Millwood
2004 WARP: 2.4
Rating: BUY

Of course he's going to beat that WARP if healthy. The question is by how much. Probably what you're looking at is the 2003 version of Millwood, which isn't an ace by any stretch of the imagination but for what the Indians are looking for will fit in just fine. He probably should be the team's #2 by season's end.

LHSP Cliff Lee
2004 WARP: 3.4
Rating: BUY

This is the wild card of the staff. Lee's strikeout rates held even as he struggled in July and August, so I'm banking on a big jump this season. His early career numbers resemble the struggles of Matt Clement in his first few seasons; hopefully that's a good sign.

RHSP Scott Elarton
2004 WARP: 2.7
Rating: STRONG SELL


A lot of things point to Elarton's second half being a fluke. The defense behind him saved him more than even Jake Westbrook; The Hardball Times' Fielding Independent Pitching (which is an approximation of a pitchers' ERA if a league-average defense was behind him) for Elarton was 5.87, almost a run and a half higher than his real ERA. Now perhaps having Sizemore, Crisp, and Gerut in the outfield during a lot of his starts helped out, but those aren't encouraging numbers regardless. The percentage of batted balls turned into outs for Elarton was .764, highest on the staff (minimum 20 innings pitched). Given the tenuous nature of the 5th spot in the rotation, I'll be very surprised if Elarton stays in the rotation through June.