Wednesday, March 31, 2004

Transactions

Traded the rights to OF Willy Taveras and OF Luke Scott to the Houston Astros for LHSP Jeriome Robertson

Assigned Jeriome Robertson to Buffalo (AAA)

Since the alternatives included Glendon Rush and Aaron Sele, a nice pickup, if for nothing else than to provide some depth.

Here's how the negotiations probably went:

Hunsicker: Hey Mark, I want to talk to you about keeping Taveras. He isn't going to make the club, but we still like him.
Shapiro: I'm sure we can work something out...I've been looking to add a starter, and I remember talking to you about Robertson last week..
Hunsicker: I don't know if I'm willing to deal Robertson straight up for Taveras...
Shapiro: How about I add Luke Scott? He's stuck in our system, and I know you need outfielders.
Hunsicker: Let me take a look...ok, I think we have a deal.

Taveras and Scott were at the lower ends of the organizational depth chart. Taveras definitely has the higher potential of becoming a good player, but he's a good 2 years from contributing anything besides speed and defense in the majors. Luke Scott has been old for his levels his entire professional career, and had just reached AA last year. He has shown pretty good power, but not enough to jump him past guys like Jason Cooper, Nathan Panther, Brad Snyder, and Ben Francisco, not to mention Grady Sizemore and all of the young outfielders currently on the Indians' roster.

Robertson is a tough guy to project. Yeah, he won 15 games last year, but had an ERA above 5.00, not good for a National League pitcher. Given these two facts, the next logical step would be that the Astros offense bailed him out a lot last year. But here's where it really gets interesting:

In his 15 wins, he had an ERA of 2.09
In his 9 losses and no decisions, he has an ERA of almost 9.00

Here's his game log from 2003

So his wins AND losses were both earned. This leads me to believe that he has marginal stuff, and if he doesn't have it, he's going to get rocked. The Indians seem to be collecting soft-tossing soutpaws: Jason Stanford, Brian Tallet, Billy Traber, and now Robertson. Regardless, for what they gave up, the Indians did a good job of efficiently addressing their needs. Robertson should start in Buffalo, and be the first guy called up if a starter goes down for an extended period of time.

Stanford the #5 Starter

Jason Stanford has been named the 5th starter for the Indians. Unlike previous years, the 5th starter will actually start in the first week, as the Indians play 7 games in 7 days to start the season

The only real battle left is the 4th outfielder, but I can't see the Indians picking Coco Crisp over Alex Escobar, especially with all the left-handed pitching the Indians are going to face in April.

Spring Cleaning

Over the next week, I'll be updating a lot of the links to the right. Once USA Today publishes the salaries, I'll update the Indians' current roster's salaries. Now that minor-league rosters are getting finalized, the organizational depth chart will get an update as well. And I'm going to update the transaction pages as well. So keep checking back between now and Opening Day.

Also, during the season, I'm going to try to concentrate my efforts on keeping the site updated, and trying to stay away from the mundane stuff that I've been posting recently. I'd rather focus on the more abstract aspects of the game, and topics that you might not know too much about, such as sabermetrics, scouting, the minors, lineup management, among other things. Don't worry, I'll still post any transactions that come across the wire, as well as a short comment if it's warrented, but I don't want this to become just a blog that regurgitates the same stuff that you read about in your local paper.

I'd appreciate any suggestions as to any subjects that you want covered, including other teams in the American or National Leagues. I'll do my best to reply to them. Also, I'll continue to post any links to baseball-related sites or blogs that get sent my way, so if you have your own creation, don't hesitate to write.

Monday, March 29, 2004

Rule 5 Update

Luis Gonzalez has made Colorado's Opening Day Roster, the first Indians' Rule 5 pick to do so. Hector Luna is in the running to make the Cardinals' roster as a utility infielder, and Willy Taveras is still in Houston's camp. Cardinals manager Tony La Russa really likes Luna and is considering optioning Bo Hart to AAA in order to keep Hector on the roster.

The other pending draft pick, Lino Urdaneta, will probably be returned by Opening Day.

Sunday, March 28, 2004

Transactions

Traded IF Ricky Gutierrez and a big bag of cash to the New York Mets for a PTBNL

Optioned LHRP Cliff Bartosh to Buffalo (AAA)

Assigned RHRP David Lee, OF Ernie Young, RHRP Matt Miller, C Brian Luderer, and IF Zach Sorensen

And so it ends. Gutierrez was a shell of the player the Indians thought they signed in 2002 because of injury, and when he finally completely recovered from two back surgeries, there was no spot for him. The Indians saved approximately $1M (they will pay about 75% of his 2004 contract) from this move, assuming the alternative was outright releasing him. I doubt the PTBNL will be of any consequence.

Some Other Decisions...

Josh Bard may find himself in Buffalo because of an ill-timed injury, and Tim Laker will in all probability back up Victor Martinez.

So now the only real decision left is choosing between Coco Crisp and Alex Escobar to be the 4th outfielder. My money is on Escobar; the Indians will have to face a lot of left-handed pitching in the AL Central, and Escobar is the only right-handed power bat on the roster.

Saturday, March 27, 2004

Transactions

Released RHRP Giovanni Carrara

In Other News...

Manager Eric Wedge announced that Jeff D'Amico will be the 4th starter, Jake Westbrook will go to the bullpen, and Chad Durbin will make the team in some capacity, whether that be as the 5th starter or a longman. This sets the pitching staff, unless Durbin beats out Jason Stanford for the 5th starter. If Stanford loses out, he will definitely go to Buffalo, and a guy like Luther Hackman would be the 7th man in the bullpen.

Friday, March 26, 2004

Transactions

Announced that IF Adam Piatt has retired from baseball

Acquired IF Brent Abernathy from the Detroit Tigers for Cash

Well, if you take these two pieces of news together, it seems that Abernathy will take Piatt's place on Buffalo's roster. And when Corey Smith makes the jump from Akron, Abernathy will probably be gone. Jhonny Peralta, Chris Clapinski, Brandon Phillips, and Abernathy will play 2B, SS, and 3B, with Abernathy probably spending much of that time on the bench.

Tuesday, March 23, 2004

A Treatise on the Indians, or the 2004 Preview

Everyone seems to know everything before the 1st of April. Prognosticators come out of the woodwork in February, we buy their magazines, and they go away for another year. "This is finally the year for [insert team here]!" they shout.

Well, I'm not about to make any bold predictions about the Indians, or any other team for that matter. I'm just going to give you my impression about the Cleveland Indians, and you, the reader, can draw your own conclusions. This may be one way of covering my behind if something bad happens, but I really feel that making concrete predictions without backing it up with some coherent argument is irresponsible; I plan to give you my arguments and leave the predictions to someone else. So here goes:

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On a lot of teams in the American League, you pretty much know what you're going to get. The Yankees will score runs. The Red Sox and Athletics will have good pitching staffs. Why do we know this? These teams have players that have proven track records, a concrete history of successes and failures that any halfway intelligent fan can study and come up with a decent projection for. For the most part, the Indians have precious few of those players; in fact, I only see four: Matt Lawton, CC Sabathia, Ron Belliard, and Omar Vizquel. And two of them are both coming off injury-plagued seasons.

So that makes projecting the Indians a complete mystery to me. So I've pegged 10 players that will play a huge part in determing whether the Tribe loses 90 games again or finishes around .500:

1. Jason Davis
2. Cliff Lee
3. David Riske
4. Jody Gerut
5. Travis Hafner
6. Ben Broussard
7. Victor Martinez
8. Alex Escobar
9. Milton Bradley
10. Brandon Phillips

9 out of the 10 players listed here are in all likelihood going to make the team; I included Phillips in the list because I think there's going to come a time this season where he will play a considerable stretch of games, whether that be through injury or trade. And a successful rebound can allow the Indians to spend their money elsewhere after the season.

Hafner, Esobar, Broussard, and Gerut need to hit for power, because they play positions where it's almost mandatory to hit 20+ HR. Escobar is completely recovered from his 2002 knee injury, and the sky is the limit for him if he continues to exercise discipline at the plate. Jody Gerut's main priority is to stay healthy, but to also prove that his outstanding freshman season wasn't a fluke. Travis Hafner and Ben Broussard need to continue to build on their 2003 successes and prove that they can hit left-handed pitching.

Probably the most important names on the list are second-year picthers Cliff Lee and Jason Davis. If either flops, the year will probably be a disaster, because starting pitching is the one area in which the Indians are extremely thin in. Jake Westbrook, Jason Stanford, and Chad Durbin will have to be strong Band-Aids in the back of the rotation, but if Davis and Lee can't produce, it won't matter what they do.

David Riske (for now, anyways) will have to be what Danys Baez couldn't be the year before, an effective closer. Jose Jimenez and Scott Stewart were brought in for depth in the bullpen, and those moves seem prescient now with Wickman's season-ending elbow injury. Rafael Betancourt and Jack Cressend should only be seen in the 6th and 7th innings if all goes well.

Victor Martinez can make a big difference in the offense if he's healthy; a catcher who can hit is gravy in any lineup, and especially in one that needs offensive production. The addition of Ron Belliard and the "new and improved" Matt Lawton should also help as well, but Martinez in my mind is a bigger key.

All of the players on this list are talented, have been on a lot of top prospect lists, and have had success throughout their minor league careers or their short major-league careers. But they have yet to prove that they can consistently be a solid or better starter in the majors. Bradley, Gerut, and Riske have to at least maintain their 2003 levels this season, and the rest has to improve on last year's efforts. Write this list down, and refer to it throughout the season. If you see more than half on this list playing to their potential, then the Indians are going to be a pain to the AL Central. If not, then it's going to be a long season.

The Indians' initial priority after the Colon trade was to bring in as much talent as possible. Mission accomplished; the Tribe has the best young core of talent in the majors right now, and the talent in the minors has garnered Cleveland's organization a top-5 finish again in Baseball America's rankings. Now Shapiro's task is to hone this talent into major-league contributors this season, supplement it after the season with free agents, and win with it in 2005. That's his plan, and if it fails, I will be the first to criticize him and owner Paul Dolan.

The division is ripe for the taking right now, but unfortunately, it's a year too early to seriously consider contention. The Royals made smart moves over the winter, picking up low-cost pieces and parts, but their pitching rotation is very weak. Chicago made less moves than the Indians, and lost Bartolo Colon and Carl Everett, among others. The Twins lost the two main cogs (Guardado, Hawkins) in the strongest part of their team, their bullpen. Cleveland's major weakness is going to be their pitching depth, and to a lesser extent their offense; unless some of the players in the list above have breakout years, the Indians' offense will be one of the worst in the league.

The future as it stands now looks extremely bright for the Indians organization as a whole. Mark Shapiro, after commiting several high-cost blunders in his first winter as GM, has made the tough decisions, and more importantly, have stayed the course. John Mirabelli has put together one solid (2003) and one outstanding (2002) draft in the past couple of years, giving the Indians' farm system almost unprecedented depth. And owner Larry Dolan has spent his money in the right places for a rebuilding team: into the farm system. If the Indians on the field can improve, these three people have put the Indians in the catbird seat; they'll have a lot of financial flexibility to go get free agents, and the talent in the minors to not only continue the talent influx from within, but to use that depth to go get major-league talent via trades.

These are the circumstances we as fans face right now, which makes this year an extremely important season. Because of all the unproven talent on the team, there's really no ceiling or floor for the Indians right now. And that should make for an interesting ride, one way or the other.






Monday, March 22, 2004

An Urbina Sighting

Barely a week after finding that Wickman is done for most of (if not all) the entire season, the Indians have invited closer-for-sale Ugueth Urbina to talk about a contract. UU has been demanding a multi-year contract, which the Indians, given their recent history, will not give out. But given the choice bewteen the American League and a year in Japan, I think he'd rather stay in the States. Reportedly the Indians' offer is around 2.5M to 3.0M for one year. Whether that's good enough for Urbina remains to be seen.

Sunday, March 21, 2004

Transactions

Signed free agent IF Stubby Clapp to a minor-league contract (date unknown)

Transactions

Signed free agent LHRP Scott Sauerbeck to a minor-league contract with a club option for 2005

Sauerbeck will not pitch this season thanks to off-season shoulder surgery, so essentially it's a delayed one-year contract. If healthy, Sauerbeck would be a nice leftie to pair with Scott Stewart next year. You could also look at this as the first piece the Indians added for their playoff run in 2005. But either way, it's a nice low-risk move for the Indians.

Other Notes

Now that it's been confirmed that Bob Wickman will miss a big chunk of this season, David Riske will assume the closer's role, and Jimenez will move into a setup role.

The only two position battles are starting to heat up:

4th/5th Starter: Chad Durbin, coming off surgery, has a big start coming up on Sunday against the Expos. If he doesn't pitch well, he's probably out of the running. Jake Westbrook hasn't really lost a spot in the rotation, Jason Stanford has probably pitched better than the other four competitors, and Jeff D'Amico and Jason Bere have the vaunted titles of "veterens". In a perfect world, I think the Indians would prefer that Westbrook and D'Amico are the 4th and 5th starters, Bere and Durbin head to Buffalo, and Stanford sticks around in the bullpen as the second leftie/longman.

Utility Infielder: The more Ricky Gutierrez plays, the more it appears that John McDonald will be playing with someone else when the season starts. Gutierrez has a larger contract than McDonald, and is a much better hitter than McDonald. McDonald is definitely the better fielder, but on a team that needs as much offense as it can get, his lack of hitting is a definite concern. Lou Merloni looks to have the inside track on the Bill Selby Memorial 25th man, as he can play the infield and outfield, and unlike Selby (and Sorensen) he can hit.

Friday, March 19, 2004

Thursday, March 18, 2004

Transactions

Claimed LHRP Matt White off waivers from the Colorado Rockies (more below)

Placed LHSP Billy Traber on the 60-day Disabled List (elbow)

Ok, this might make the Danys Baez roster extravaganza seem tame. A quick history lesson on White's travels:

  • Last offseason, the Seattle Mariners drafted White in the Rule 5 Draft


  • They then traded him to the Boston Red Sox


  • He was then returned to the Indians (outrighting him in the process), and spent the rest of the year in Buffalo


  • The Colorado Rockies selected him in this year's Rule 5 Draft


  • Ok, got all that? Good. Because he had already been outrighted (or removed from the 40-man roster), White could have refused being outrighted a second time. Because the Indians wanted him back, they took the opportunity to claim him on waivers before the Rockies could offer him back to the Indians. And with Traber (and Tallet) ticketed for the 60-day Disabled List, the Indians had a free roster spot available. So now the Indians have (I believe) two more option years on White to evaluate him, which will be more than enough. And given the lack of starting depth, I wouldn't be surprised if they stretched him out into a starting role in Buffalo just in case a starter gets hurt.

    By the way, Hector Luna, who was selected by the St. Louis Cardinals in the Rule 5 Draft, is under the same set of circumstances; he was selected the year before (Tampa Bay) and returned. So if the Indians want him back, they'll claim him on waivers.

    On the Injury Front

    Bob Wickman had an MRI yesterday on his surgically repaired elbow. Not a good sign. If he's shut down, David Riske is probably first in line to reclaim the closer's role, and Scott Stewart and Jose Jimenez have both closed before. Contrary to the starting pitcher situation, the Indians have a lot of depth here, so I'm not as worried about this as an injury to a starter. But still, a healthy Wickman makes the Indians pen a lot stronger, and would reduce the burden on a very young starting staff. A Wickman injury may open the door for an NRI like Luther Hackman or David Lee to make the team. I doubt Kazuhito Tadano or Fernando Cabrera would be called upon right off the bat, but both should get some kind of opportunity as the year goes on.

    Monday, March 15, 2004

    Transactions

    Optioned RHSP Jeremy Guthrie and RHSP Francisco Cruceta to Buffalo (AAA)

    Optioned 3B Corey Smith and LHSP Mariano Gomez to Akron (AA)

    Optioned SS Ivan Ochoa to Kinston (A+)

    Sent C David Wallace, 1B Michael Aubrey, and RHSP Kyle Denney to minor-league camp

    Saturday, March 13, 2004

    Transactions

    Signed OF Jody Gerut to a one year, $325k major-league contract

    Announced that RHRP Mark Wohlers will not play during the 2004 season because of personal reasons

    Tuesday, March 09, 2004

    Transactions

    Purchased C Eddie Fink from Fargo-Moorhead of the Northern League

    Saturday, March 06, 2004

    Transactions

    Signed C Josh Bard, 3B Casey Blake, RHSP Chad Durbin, 1B Travis Hafner, C Victor Martinez, IF John McDonald, and RHRP Jack Cressend to 1 year major-league contracts (amounts undisclosed).

    Assigned OF Brad Snyder to minor-league camp

    Signed free agent RHRP Roy Smith to a minor-league contract

    Thursday, March 04, 2004

    Transactions

    Signed free agents RHP Matt DeWitt and RHP Robert Ellis to minor-league contracts

    Placed RHP Michael Rogers on the Voluntarily Retired List

    Reverse Kleptomania

    Eric Wedge has denounced the stolen base as being overrated, eschewing the "small-ball" mythology that light-hitting teams like to throw out as their strategy.

    In a piece written by Paul Hoynes, Wedge alluded to ideas championed by sabermetrically-based teams:

    "I'm not a huge proponent of base stealing," said Wedge. "I'm a huge proponent of getting on base."

    This is something I feel strongly about when picking a leadoff hitter, or even evaluating hitters in general: you need to get on base to be successful. Speed (and the ability to steal a base) does not compensate for getting on base to begin with. Yes, speed is a great asset to have in conjunction with on-base skills (see Carlos Beltran and Ichiro Suzuki), but if I had to choose one or the other, I would take on-base ability in a heartbeat.

    So what does this say about who the leadoff man will be? Right now, it looks like it's Matt Lawton. He's not the fastest guy in baseball, but he has the best career on-base percentage on the team. Hoynes goes on to say,

    Of course, they'd feel differently if they had a young Kenny Lofton or Rickey Henderson.

    Unfortunately, the Indians don't happen to have a 90-plus base stealer on their team. And in case, Hoynes hasn't noticed, no one does that anymore. There are very few basestealers who can steal with a high percenatage of success, and fewer still who can get on base as well. Ricky Henderson, when he finally decides to retire, will be a first-ballot Hall of Famer because of this combination. So until the Indians find the next Henderson or Lofton under a rock, they'll be content with someone who can get on base. If you have good hitters behind the leadoff hitter, the runs take care of themselves.







    Monday, March 01, 2004